As before every matchday, we want to look at a European Cup match today and give you a compact preview. Today we are looking to Salzburg, where the Austrian runners-up will host Dynamo Kiev in the second leg of the CL playoffs.
RB Salzburg – Dynamo Kyiv
Tuesday, August 27, 2024, 9:00 p.m.
RB Salzburg has one and a half feet in the Champions League. The Austrian runners-up won the first leg against Dynamo Kiev 2-0 away, laying the foundation for their sixth consecutive participation in the premier class. Qualification would also be remarkable because for the first time in the history of Austrian football, two clubs would take part in this competition. Champions Sturm are already qualified.
It’s not just the 2-0 win in the first leg that speaks for RB Salzburg. Since new coach Lijnders has been at work, Salzburg have shown a completely different side. The joy of playing is back, the team is more offensively oriented and this is reflected in the results. In the league, they won three games in the first three rounds, the match against TSV Hartberg at the weekend was postponed so that they could prepare for the important second leg in peace. In the previous round, they beat Twente Enschede, although they had to tremble a little at the end and were promoted with an overall score of 5:4.
The result against Dynamo Kiev was also clearer than the game itself. The possession was even, and Salzburg were slightly ahead in terms of expected goals. The xG values from the opponent’s perspective were 1.74:2.27 – so it was not a clear-cut affair and the Ukrainians, who had to play the home game in Poland, could have scored.
For Kiev, the 0-2 defeat against RB Salzburg was the first defeat of the season. Before that, they knocked Partizan and the Rangers out of the competition and also won two games in the league. The Ukrainians also postponed the championship game at the weekend so that they could prepare for today’s match in peace.
From a data perspective, there is one main reason for the defeat. While the expected goals are relatively even at 1.74:2.27, Salzburg are clearly ahead in terms of xGOT values. The expected goals on target measure the probability of a goal after the shot is taken, i.e. they take the quality of the shot into account, while the xG numbers become important before the shot is taken. This means that a shot that has an xG value of 0.3, for example, but is shot over or next to the goal, has an xGOT value of 0, because the shot can never go into the goal due to poor execution.
Salzburg are clearly ahead here with 0.29:2.35. These values show that the Ukrainians performed far below expectations in the final stages and fired weak shots.
Aleksa Terzic will be missing from the home team today due to injury. New signing Bobby Clark will also not play a role as he is not yet eligible to play. In addition, the long-term injured Fernando, Konate, Kawamura and Morgalla are missing.
One detailed preview and betting tips for the match between RB Salzburg and Dynamo Kiev can be found at wettbasis.com. There is also a Preview and forecast to this meeting.
