Raoul Pal is currently best known as a co-founder of Real Vision, but Pal has also worked as a portfolio manager at Goldman Sachs in the past. Recently, he has fully focused on crypto and now he has spoken out about what he believes to be immense potential that the sector has. In the next ten years, Pal sees the market value of the industry go up 100x. Provided that adoption continues at the same pace as it has in recent years.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fdx7dV2CPxI
Pal compares it with other markets such as stocks, bonds and real estate, each of which also has a market value of between 250 and 350 trillion dollars. “If I look at the $1 trillion derivatives market, I think there’s a fair chance this will be a $250 trillion asset class. Which means we’re going to go 100x over from here, which would be the largest asset class growth in history in a short period of time,” said Raoul Pal.
To 3.5 billion users by 2030
In addition to a total market value of $250 trillion, Raoul Pal also predicts in the above-quoted interview that the industry will grow to 3.5 billion users. Which means roughly half the planet has at least some crypto in his or her portfolio at that point. That now sounds far away and like a utopia, but when you see how fast bitcoin has grown in recent years, it certainly does not seem improbable. After all, we are talking about the year 2030, which is still a good 8 years away from us.
However, one thing is certain and that is that we are not going up in a straight line. As we have seen in recent years, the growth of bitcoin and the rest of the industry has been accompanied by severe volatility. The last 24 hours have not been a party in that regard either.
With bitcoin crashing around 7 percent, as well as Ethereum and Binance Coin falling hard, the industry is having a similar hard time. This seems to be mainly due to the decision of the US Federal Reserve to push through with its plans to raise interest rates. Which means financing becomes more expensive and that is generally not good for financial markets.
Raoul Pal expects strong start to 2022
The blow we have made in recent hours will come as a surprise to Pal, because he indicated in the interview that he expected bitcoin to start strong in 2022. The opposite now seems to be true. Although we have only just started the new year and it would not be fair to provide the prediction or expectation of Pal with a final assessment already.
Bitcoin may have taken a few hits, but on-chain we are still very strong. Especially when you look at the behavior of long-term hodlers. At the time of writing, 76 percent of the bitcoin supply is illiquid according to Glassnode, meaning these coins are in the wallets of people who rarely or never sell bitcoin.
It seems to be mainly newcomers who are currently panicking and selling their bitcoin to people who are convinced of the potential of the digital currency in the long term. In November, Pal predicted that the bull run would not end in December, but that this cycle would be extended into June. The seasoned investor expects this due to institutional capital expected to inflow in the first quarter of 2022.
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