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Pavel Kotov
The DRAM chip maker, primarily Micron and SK hynix, have begun cutting production. Average selling price (ASP) of DRAM fell by 20% in Q1 2023 and will continue to fall in Q2, but will slow down to 10-15%, analysts say TrendForce. Whether demand will recover in the second half of the year is not yet clear. The price of DRAM continues to fall due to high levels of inventory, and price recovery is possible only in the event of a significant reduction in production.
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In the PC RAM segment, sales have dropped sharply over the last three quarters, with PC makers now holding 9 to 13 weeks of inventory. Component suppliers have already reduced production volumes, but the 8 GB DDR4 module is likely to fall in price by 10% in the second quarter. PC OEMs may step up their DRAM purchases due to price cuts, but it’s not yet clear if this measure will help mitigate the overstocking situation. PC DRAM prices will fall by 10-15%, TrendForce analysts predict.
Demand for server DRAM from OEMs and cloud providers is still weak due to inventory adjustments. Does not inspire optimism and demand among buyers of servers. Component makers are ramping up the share of server memory in their portfolio, which led to significant stockpiling in Q1 2023, while reducing capacity utilization, although this measure has not yet had a noticeable impact on prices. According to TrendForce forecasts, server memory ASP will decrease by 13-18% in Q2 2023.
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Smartphone DRAM inventories have returned to relatively normal levels, but brands are largely on a conservative manufacturing strategy, meaning mobile DRAM demand will remain subdued in Q2, once again driven by inventory liquidation, which even production cuts cannot yet meet. Mobile DRAM ASP will continue to decline in Q2 2023, according to TrendForce, but there is still a possibility that the negative price dynamics will reach 10-15%.
Graphic DRAM consumers are replenishing stocks very conservatively – even the emerging boom in artificial intelligence did not have a positive impact on demand. The average price of industry-leading 16Gb GDDR6 chips in Q2 2023 will show a 10-15% drop compared to the previous quarter, TrendForce predicts. Now the industry is moving from 8 to 16 Gb DRAM. At the end of the year, Samsung will curtail the production of 8Gb chips, and the only manufacturer with such an outdated offer will remain SK hynix – perhaps this will stabilize the price of 8Gb chips.
Finally, a similar picture is observed in the DRAM segment for consumer devices: demand for network equipment shows relative stability, but supply continues to outpace it, as a result of which ASP DRAM, according to TrendForce analysts, will fall by 10-15% in Q2.
