Table of Contents
- 1 How would Rafał Trzaskowski do in the first round of the presidential elections?
- 2 How would Radosław Sikorski do in the first round of the presidential elections?
- 3 Which KO contender has a better chance in the second round?
- 4 **Considering the historical and geopolitical context of Poland, what are the potential long-term ramifications of electing either Trzaskowski or Sikorski?**
- According to a survey conducted by United Surveys for Wirtualna Polska, Rafał Trzaskowski gets better results in a direct conflict with the PiS candidate than Radosław Sikorski. And this happens both in the first and second round of the presidential elections.
- Rafał Trzaskowski’s advantage in the first round is as much as 8 percentage points. over the next candidate, while the advantage of Radosław Sikorski is only 3.4 percentage points. – according to a survey for Wirtualna Polska.
- A study for WP, conducted after the announcement of the KO primaries, shows that both Rafał Trzaskowski and Radosław Sikorski have a real chance to win the second round of the presidential elections against the PiS candidate . However, the Mayor of Warsaw gets a better result.
On Friday, activists of the Civic Coalition will choose the candidate of this group in the elections for the President of the Republic of Poland. Campaigners vote by sending SMS messages. Rafał Trzaskowski is number 1, Radosław Sikorski is number 2. And the message with the number is enough for the head office to count the votes.
The rest of the article is below the video.
How would Rafał Trzaskowski do in the first round of the presidential elections?
If the list of candidates included Rafał Trzaskowski, Sławomir Mentzen, Szymon Hołownia, Agnieszka Dziemianowicz-Bąk and an unknown PiS candidate – in the first round, the best result would be achieved by Rafał Trzaskowski.
According to the study – 35.8 percent. people vote for him Rafał Trzaskowskia 27.8 percent. – then PiS candidate. Such a result, of course, means a second round of the presidential elections, which would include candidates from the Civil Coalition and Law and Justice.
In third place would be Szymon Hołownia with 10.9%. In fourth place – Sławomir Mentzen with support at the rate of 9.9 percent, and in fifth place – Agnieszka Dziemianowicz-Bąk with a result of 5.1 percent.
10.5 percent respondents answered “I don’t know/it’s hard to say”.
In the survey commissioned by the Civic Coalition (conducted by Opinie24), Rafał Trzaskowski would have 40 percent in the same rating. support, and the candidate PiS – 28 percent. Importantly, the KO poll did not take into account undecided voters. After the recalculation of the survey for Wirtualna Polska, Rafał Trzaskowski’s result would be 40%. up to 31 percent for the PiS candidate.
How would Radosław Sikorski do in the first round of the presidential elections?
And how would the Poles vote if, instead of Rafał Trzaskowski, Radosław Sikorski was on the list of candidates?
According to a United Surveys survey for Wirtualna Polska, in the first round, the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs would have a worse result than the mayor of Warsaw, but still better than the PiS candidate. Radoslaw Sikorski could count on him 32.3 percent votes. PiS candidate in this arrangement he will gain and benefit 28.9 percent
Szymon Hołownia would be in third place, getting 12 percent. votes. In fourth place would be Sławomir Mentzen with a yield of 9.8 percent, and in fifth place – Agnieszka Dziemianowicz-Bąk with a yield of 6.7 percent.
10.3 percent respondents answered “I don’t know/it’s hard to say”.
It is worth noting – in the poll of the Civic Coalition, Radosław Sikorski would have lost in the first round of the presidential elections – getting 28 percent. votes at 30 percent PiS candidate votes. In this case, the study did not take into account the votes of undecided people who want to participate in the presidential elections. It is worth remembering that it was held on November 5-10, ie before Sikorski began its campaign in earnest.
After calculating the Wirtualna Polska survey results (for verified voters only) – Radosław Sikorski would have 36 percent. votes, and the PiS candidate 32.3 percent. This means that Sikorski has increased its support.
To summarize: Rafał Trzaskowski gets better results in a direct conflict with the PiS candidate than Radosław Sikorski in the first round of the presidential elections.
His advantage over the PiS candidate is as much as 8 percentage points, while Sikorski’s advantage is only 3.4 percentage points. The PiS candidate in both positions maintains stable support at a level of 27.8 – 28.9 percent.
Which KO contender has a better chance in the second round?
In all these arrangements, the president had to decide The second round of the elections. The KO candidate – Rafał Trzaskowski or Radosław Sikorski – would face the PiS candidate. Who would have a better chance of winning? We also looked into this.
If Rafał Trzaskowski was on the list for the Civil Coalition in the second roundwould win with PiS candidate, winning 58.5 percent votes against 39.2 percent 2.3 percent respondents answered “I don’t know/it’s hard to say”.
In a survey commissioned by the Civic Coalition, Rafał Trzaskowski collected 57 percent. votes (ie less compared to the survey for WP). We would like to remind you that the poll for KO does not take into account undecided votes.
If Radosław Sikorski had faced the PiS candidate in the second round, he would have won as well. He would vote for it 54.9 percent respondents (3.6% less than Rafał Trzaskowski). PiS candidate could count on him 42.4 percent votes (3.2% more than in the case of the fight with Rafał Trzaskowski). In this version, 2.7 percent. respondents answered “I don’t know/it’s hard to say”.
A survey conducted for the Civic Coalition shows that Radosław Sikorski could count on 54 percent. votes – at 46 percent votes of the opposing candidate. We would like to remind you again – this survey did not include undecided respondents.
WP research clearly shows – both the mayor of Warsaw and the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs will win the second round of the presidential elections, but with different advantages over their rival from PiS. Rafał Trzaskowski (19.3 percentage points) has a greater advantage than Radosław Sikorski (12.5 percentage points). The presidential result of the capital is clearer and indicates wider public support.
The United Surveys survey for Wirtualna Polska was conducted on November 21, 2024 on a sample of 1,000 people. The survey was conducted using telephone, computer-assisted standardized questionnaire interviews (CATI).
2024-11-22 06:38:00
#Rafał #Trzaskowski #Radosław #Sikorski #latest #presidential #poll
**Considering the historical and geopolitical context of Poland, what are the potential long-term ramifications of electing either Trzaskowski or Sikorski?**
## Open-Ended Questions for Discussion Inspired by the Article:
**Section 1: Comparing Candidate Performance**
1. **The article mentions Trzaskowski with a larger lead (19.3%) compared to Sikorski (12.5%). What factors do you think contribute to this difference in projected support?**
2. **Considering the strengths and weaknesses of both Trzaskowski and Sikorski, which candidate do you believe would be better suited to lead the country and why?**
3. **Do you think these poll results accurately reflect the sentiments of the broader population? Why or why not?**
**Section 2: Importance of Undecided Voters**
4. **The article highlights that these polls don’t include undecided voters. How do you think this omission might affect the accuracy of the projections?**
5. **What strategies might Trzaskowski and Sikorski employ to win over undecided voters in the lead-up to the election?**
**Section 3: Implications for the Election Outcome**
6. **What are the potential consequences of either candidate winning the election for Poland’s political landscape and future direction?**
7. **How might the results of this election impact Poland’s relationships with other countries, particularly within the European Union?**
8. **What are the biggest challenges facing Poland in the coming years, and how well do you think each candidate is equipped to address them?**
**Section 4: Beyond the Polls: The Broader Context**
9. **What role do you think media coverage and public discourse play in shaping opinions towards these candidates?**
10. **Beyond the candidates themselves, what are some of the key issues and themes that you believe will be decisive in this election?**
**Ending Note:**
These questions are designed to encourage thoughtful conversation and exploration of different perspectives. They aim to go beyond simple factual recall and promote critical thinking about the election and its potential implications.
