Rafał Sonik: There is nothing to invest in. It gurgles, the carpet is almost undulating

Rafał Sonik, rally driver, owner of shopping malls, developer and president of Gemini Holding spoke with Rafał Kerger, editor-in-chief of WNP.PL. The meeting was held during the European Economic Congress.

– We expected over 10 percent. unemployment at the end of this year, and it looks like it will be about 8 percent. We expected even 10%. decline in GDP in such pessimistic scenarios, and it seems that it will be 4 percent. decrease. We are in better condition than anyone expected – said Rafał Sonik.

– There is still a lot of catching up to do for many shopping malls. Paradoxically, these are mainly those galleries that before Covid were market leaders – galleries that combine passenger functions and are closely related to the employment structure, education and public transport in a given city. Undoubtedly, these galleries suffer the most – he added.

In turn, those located in medium-sized cities or allocated differently, the results are even better than the year before. The basket has also changed. – There is a large group of tenants who are doing better turnover this year than a year ago in the same period. The structure of Poles’ spending has changed. There are tenants who suffer a lot, but many are doing well and this is very optimistic, Sonik noted.

There was also a question about the development market. It is hard to imagine now that someone is just deciding to build a new skyscraper or gallery … According to Rafał Sonik, it may be difficult, but it is an absolutely temporary situation. There is nothing to invest in. – It is a phenomenon that gurgles under the carpet, this carpet is already starting to wave. In my opinion, in the next few months the capital on the market will emerge with great power – said the businessman.

– The funds have more and more capital, because they are constantly supplied. Pension and investment funds – this passive capital is constantly growing. Two days ago, I had an interview with the management of one of the largest banks in the region. The lending activity slightly decreased, while the volume of investments – despite the negative interest rate – is constantly growing and by significant amounts – he stressed.

Therefore – according to Rafał Sonik – if the volume of investments increases, interest rates are zero, professional media report about a permanent negative interest rate on deposits for enterprises, and at the same time you can see a decline in direct investment in most segments of the economy – what will it cause? Commercial real estate yields decline. In the commercial real estate investment market, the yield is called yield. Even if this rate drops to 3-4 or maybe lower, it will still be more competitive than the deposit. Therefore, investments in the commercial real estate market must start.

More in the conversation, the record below.

–