The Dutch economy will shrink by 0.2 percent this year due to the corona crisis, economists expect from Rabobank in a report published on Friday.
In this forecast, economists assume that the crisis will be brought under control between April and July. Economic recovery could then occur in mid-2020.
“The crisis is affecting almost all sectors, but the biggest blows are in the construction, agriculture, hospitality and transport sectors,” said the economists.
Rabobank economist Carlijn Prins considers the measures that the cabinet is taking to be crucial to maintain household income. “Businesses and households can pick up again when the corona crisis is over.”
However, these measures cannot alleviate all pain. For example, it may not be possible to apply for a working time reduction for flex workers or people with temporary employment contracts will not see their contracts renewed.
Some sectors continue to grow
If we manage to ward off the crisis, many sectors could start growing again in the second half of this year. However, most sectors are expected to contract.
The catering and culture sector suffer greatly from the closure of restaurants, cafes, theaters and museums. Rabobank economist Leontine Treur: “Moreover, these sectors will hardly have any catch-up effect in the third and fourth quarters, because consumers will not go to a museum twice in a row, for example.”
On the other hand, some sectors will continue to grow this year. Growth is predicted for healthcare and education, among others. The IT sector and specialist business services are also likely to grow this year.
Follow the latest developments around the virus in our live blog.
The coronavirus in short
- The coronavirus mainly spreads through sneezes and cough drops. The virus can be transmitted directly from person to person or (for a limited time) through surfaces such as door handles.
- An infected person infects two to three others on average. Precautions are necessary to contain this.
- The vast majority of patients have mild (flu-like) complaints.
- Nearly all deaths involve the elderly or other frail, such as heart, lung or diabetes patients. If everyone complies with the measures, this reduces their risks.
- Read here what precautions you should take.
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