Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – Indonesia is one of the countries predicted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as a country that is immune to recession.
In the International Monetary Fund (IMF) report quoted by CNBC Indonesia, Wednesday (27/7/2022), Indonesia’s economic growth is predicted to surpass China’s, whose economy fell from 8.1% to 3.3% in 2022.
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Indonesia’s economic growth is also higher than the United States (US) which is predicted in 2022 to only be able to realize growth of 2.3% or lower than 2021 which is 5.7%.
The IMF report states that the Indonesian economy will accelerate by 5.3% in 2022. Although slightly lower than the initial estimate, it is still higher than 2021 which will reach 3.7%. And it will still grow at around 5.2% in 2023.
Bank Mandiri economist Faisal Rachman said the projected solid economic growth in Indonesia was contributed by the blessing of high world commodity prices, in which Indonesia is one of the producers of these commodities.
“Indonesia’s economic forecast in 2022 is because Indonesia receives a windfall from high commodity prices for external balance and fiscal conditions. This reduces the impact of the global economic slowdown and soaring inflation,” Faisal explained in his official broadcast, Wednesday (27/7/). 2022).
Faisal estimates that Indonesia’s economic growth will continue to improve this year. It can be seen from the engine of Indonesia’s economic growth that comes from public consumption in the midst of increasing activity.
According to Faisal, restoring demand can encourage production and investment activities.
“With healthy domestic demand, stable export growth, prudent fiscal conditions, and solid Covid-19 management, according to Faisal, the Indonesian economy is able to grow around 5.17% in 2022, stronger than last year’s growth,” Faisal explained. .
However, consumer price inflation (CPI) which has now touched the level of 4.35% in June 2022 or which has exceeded the government’s inflation target range of 2% to 4%, according to Faisal, can affect household purchasing power to a certain degree.
However, the strong export performance of key commodities could sustain unexpected export earnings and fiscal revenues.
“This allows the government to increase energy subsidies and the allocation of temporary unconditional cash transfers that can maintain private consumption, while still reducing the budget deficit towards fiscal consolidation in 2023,” he said.
“Furthermore, we estimate that Indonesia’s economic growth will continue to grow by 5.22% in 2023,” Faisal continued.
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