Countries commit each year to reducing their greenhouse gases? Yes and no
Under the Paris Agreement signed in 2015, all countries committed to publicly announcing their reduction targets. We call these targets THE nationally determined contributions. For example, under the Canadian Carbon Neutral Accountability ActOttawa committed to 2021 to reduce its GHGs by 40 to 45% by 2030 (compared to 2005 levels) and to achieve carbon neutrality in 2050.
Every country was required to submit such pledges. On the other hand, the Paris Agreement is not “binding”, in that even if a country does not reach its targets, it will not have to pay any penalty. In fact, for the moment, alone a minority of countries comply to his promises.
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The only “constraint” was to submit GHG reduction promises adjusted upwards every five years. This is what countries made at the Glasgow COP in 2021, then again to that of the United Arab Emirates in 2022. But these targets also remain non-binding.
They nevertheless committed not to exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius? Yes and no
At the end of the Paris COP in 2015, countries had in fact committed to “contain the temperature rise” below 2 degrees, and even to try to limit this rise to 1.5 degrees. But here again, no country will have a penalty to pay to the United Nations if the average temperature of the planet exceeds these limits. According to the latest estimates, the 1.5 degree threshold is being exceeded.
These promises are of no use? No
They allow experts to calculate the trajectory we are on. Thus, according to the latest annual report of the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) on the gap between promises and reality, if all countries respected their promises to reduce greenhouse gases, the planet would now be on a trajectory of 2, 4 to 2.6 degrees Celsius increase.
On the other hand, as few keep their promises, the current state of the situation places us on a trajectory of 2.9 degrees. Without this obligation of transparency, we would have no way of making these projections.
1.5 degrees, 2 degrees or 2.9 degrees… but compared to what?
These figures refer to the increase in the average temperature of the planet since the Industrial revolutionin the 19th century, that moment when humanity began to use coal, then oil, on a large scale. Today, we are at 1.3 degrees of increase.
If we worry about these thresholdsthis is because scientists have identified in recent decades tipping points (in English, tipping points): beyond 1.5 or 2 degrees, different systems on our planet will undergo irreversible disruptions (Arctic ice, Amazon, Gulf Stream, permafrost, coral reefs, etc.).
Is the international community doing nothing to limit future damage? Yes and no
Because action is too slow to prevent the increase in damage that will be caused by events ranging from heatwaves to hurricanes to floods, two concepts have become central to the various COPs: attenuation (in English, mitigation) et l’adaptation.
Both refer to measures to be taken to minimize future damage. For example, building flood barriers, conserving forests, closing coal-fired power plants, moving flood-prone roads or neighborhoods, etc.
There are funds to finance mitigation or adaptation projects in developing countries. But the latter have long complained that these funds cannot be used to repair the damage they are already facing—for example, catastrophic floods au Pakistan a 2022.
Do rich countries admit responsibility for the damage suffered by poor countries? In part
Another concept, “ loss and damage ” (in English, loss and damage), refers to the idea that richer countries should compensate poorer ones for their losses, since it is the rich countries which, since the Industrial Revolution, contributed more to the problem. Although the concept has been discussed since 2007, he always clashed au blocking of to admitby the rich countries, which they had a responsibility.
However, in November 2023, an agreement was finally reached to create a specially dedicated fund to help with reconstruction or repairs. Last 12 months were used to discuss in the way of which this fund will be managedin the hope that it will materialize in 2025. The question of finances will therefore be on the agenda of COP29: by adding mitigation, adaptation and losses and damages, we are talking aboute needs that can be measured in hundreds of billions of dollars per year. We are not there yet, even if the global funds allocated to “climate finance” have been growing for several years.
