Ottawa’s 2035 Petrol Vehicle Ban: Could it Cost drivers Thousands More?
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Economic analysis suggests Canadian motorists could face notable cost increases transitioning too electric vehicles as Ottawa aims to prohibit the sale of new petrol vehicles by 2035.
Ottawa’s ambitious plan to ban the sale of new gasoline-powered vehicles by 2035 is under scrutiny, with a new economic note from the Institut économique de Montréal (IEDM) indicating the move could substantially increase costs for Canadian drivers. The IEDM’s analysis reveals that motorists may have to spend over $6,000 more to purchase an electric car compared to a comparable gasoline-powered vehicle. This price disparity raises concerns about affordability and the feasibility of the transition timeline.
The report, utilizing figures calculated by the Budget Parliamentary Director (DPB) in Ottawa, projects a persistent price gap between electric and conventional vehicles. According to the IEDM, in 2026, the average electric car will still cost more to acquire than a comparable vehicle with conventional propulsion. The difference is even more pronounced for larger vehicles like SUVs, minivans, and trucks, where the cost difference could reach $11,490. The IEDM anticipates these cost differences will persist until the 2035 deadline, potentially burdening Canadian families.
Gabriel Giguère, the author of the IEDM publication, emphasized the potential financial strain this transition could place on many Canadians. “It is indeed not everyone who can afford to pay a few thousand more dollars for a vehicle,”
Giguère stated. He further noted that despite technological advancements, “projections indicate that this surprise with electric propulsion is not about to fade.”
This suggests that the price gap is not expected to close substantially in the near future, posing a challenge to widespread EV adoption.
Quebec’s Potential Reassessment
The federal government’s 2023 mandate aims to gradually eliminate the sale of new petrol vehicles by 2035, pushing for a widespread adoption of electric vehicles across the country. This mandate sets a clear direction for the automotive industry and consumers alike.
However, the province of Quebec recently signaled a potential shift in its approach. The Quebec government admitted it might not meet its own 2035 target for banning new petrol vehicle sales, citing uncertainties related to potential policy changes under U.S. President Donald Trump. This highlights the interconnectedness of Canadian and U.S. automotive markets and policies.
Benoit charette, the Minister of the Surroundings for Quebec, explained the province’s position: “We are going to look at what the three major American manufacturers do. We continue to wish to spend as quickly as possible to electric cars.”
This statement suggests Quebec is closely monitoring the actions of major automakers and may adjust its strategy based on developments in the automotive industry, especially in the United States.
Slow Adoption Rates and Public Concerns
Despite government incentives and subsidies, the adoption of electric vehicles in Canada remains relatively slow. The IEDM highlights that electric vehicles accounted for only 13.4 percent of new vehicle registrations in Canada during the first three quarters of 2024. This indicates a significant gap between the government’s goals and current consumer behavior.
A recent IEDM-IPSOS survey reveals significant public apprehension regarding electric vehicle adoption. Among Canadians who do not currently own an electric vehicle, less than a quarter indicated that their next vehicle purchase would be electric. The primary concern cited by seven out of ten respondents is the high purchase price of electric vehicles. This underscores the importance of addressing affordability to encourage wider adoption.
Giguère commented on the survey findings, stating, “I think that the government in place should start listening to the population and saying to itself: this type of regulation ther, the population does not believe it and does not want it.”
This suggests a need for the government to reassess its approach and consider public concerns regarding the transition to electric vehicles.
Infrastructure Challenges and Costs
Beyond the vehicle purchase price, the IEDM raises concerns about the capacity of Canada’s electrical infrastructure to support a widespread transition to electric vehicles. A robust and reliable charging infrastructure is crucial for ensuring a smooth transition.
A report by the Canadian ministry of Natural Resources estimates that Canada needs to install 40,000 new public charging stations annually to adequately support the growing number of electric vehicles. However, in 2024, only 17 percent of this target was achieved, according to the IEDM. This significant shortfall highlights the challenges in scaling up the charging infrastructure to meet the demands of a fully electric vehicle fleet.
The IEDM estimates that the forced transition to electric propulsion could require investments of up to $294 billion in electricity production, transport, and distribution across Canada by 2040. This figure underscores the significant financial commitment required to support the infrastructure necesary for a fully electric vehicle fleet, raising questions about the feasibility and cost-effectiveness of the transition.
Ottawa’s 2035 EV Mandate: Will Canadians Pay the Price for a Greener Future?
Will the push for electric vehicles leave many Canadians unable too afford their next car? An expert weighs in on the economic and logistical hurdles of a rapid transition.
Interviewer (World Today News): Dr. Anya Sharma, renowned economist and energy policy expert, welcome to World Today News. The recent IEDM report paints a concerning picture of the economic impact of Ottawa’s plan to ban the sale of new gasoline-powered vehicles by 2035. What are your initial thoughts on this looming challenge?
Dr. Sharma: Thank you for having me. The IEDM’s findings highlight a critical juncture in Canada’s energy transition.The ambitious goal of a complete shift to electric vehicles (EVs) by 2035 is laudable from an environmental perspective. However, the report’s projections of significantly higher EV purchase prices, perhaps exceeding $6,000 for comparable models and much more for larger vehicles, raise serious questions about affordability and equitable access. This isn’t simply a matter of inconvenience; it’s a potential barrier to mobility and economic participation for a ample segment of the population.
Interviewer: The report mentions a persistent price gap between electric and gasoline-powered vehicles. What factors contribute to this, and are there any potential solutions?
Dr. Sharma: The price difference stems from several interrelated factors. Firstly, the battery technology in evs is currently expensive to produce, requiring rare earth minerals and complex manufacturing processes. Secondly,the EV market is still relatively nascent,with economies of scale not yet fully realized. Thirdly,there’s the issue of supply chain vulnerabilities,which can cause price volatility.
Addressing this price gap requires a multi-pronged approach. This includes:
Investing in domestic battery production to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers.
Implementing policies that encourage innovation and competition in the EV manufacturing sector.
Providing targeted financial incentives – not just for the vehicle purchase, but also for charging infrastructure at home.
Strengthening international collaboration on mineral extraction and battery technology advancement.
Interviewer: Quebec’s recent acknowledgment that thay might miss their 2035 target adds another layer of complexity.How does this impact the national strategy, and what role do US policies play?
Dr. Sharma: Quebec’s potential delay reflects the inherent challenges in coordinating a nationwide shift to EVs. The North American automotive market is deeply integrated, meaning policy changes in one country inevitably influence its neighbors. The US’s approach to EV incentives and regulations will undeniably affect Canada’s ability to swiftly transition. A harmonious and coordinated North American strategy would be ideal, and it can be facilitated by increased interaction and aligned policies between both countries.
Interviewer: The IEDM highlights slow EV adoption rates in Canada.Beyond price, are there other significant barriers preventing widespread adoption?
Dr. Sharma: Absolutely. Beyond the high purchase price, range anxiety (fear of running out of charge), lack of accessible charging infrastructure, and concerns about charging times continue to hinder EV adoption. Public perception and trust are also crucial factors. Many potential buyers remain uncertain about the long-term reliability and maintenance costs of EVs. Addressing these concerns requires comprehensive public awareness campaigns, alongside substantial investments in charging infrastructure development.
Interviewer: The report also touches on the substantial infrastructure investments required to support a mass-scale EV adoption. What is the magnitude of this challenge, and how can it be overcome?
Dr. Sharma: The scale of infrastructure investment needed is staggering.We’re talking about grid upgrades,expanding electricity generation capacity,and developing a comprehensive network of public and home charging stations.The IEDM’s estimate of $294 billion in investment by 2040 emphasizes that a purely top-down, government-driven approach might prove unsustainable. A public-private partnership model, where investors assume a larger role in infrastructure development and maintenance, could be more effective and efficient. The government’s role then shifts more towards regulation and strategic guidance.
Interviewer: What is your overall assessment, and what recommendations would you offer to policymakers and the public?
Dr. Sharma: The transition to a fully electric vehicle fleet presents both significant opportunities and unprecedented challenges. Achieving a triumphant transition requires a pragmatic, balanced strategy that addresses affordability, infrastructure needs, and public concerns. Policymakers should prioritize:
Phased implementation,allowing for a gradual transition. A complete ban by 2035 may prove unrealistic; careful planning is essential.
Subsidizing the development of more affordable EV batteries and vehicles.
Massive investment in charging infrastructure, particularly in underserved areas.
Obvious communication and public education about the transition and its benefits.
For the public, understanding the long-term benefits of EVs while remaining pragmatic about their current limitations is most crucial.
Interviewer: Dr. Sharma, thank you for this insightful discussion. Your analysis has shed much-needed light on this complex issue.
Final Thoughts: The path to a greener future powered by electric vehicles is paved with economic and logistical challenges.Overcoming them requires innovative policies, strategic investment, and a shared commitment from governments, the private sector, and the public. Share your thoughts on the practicality of a 2035 deadline on our social media channels; your perspective matters!