We are very sorry, but the two great favorites of the tournament will not be able to play in the Champions League final. Due to the chances of the draw, the very powerful Bayern Munich (current champions) and Manchester City, led by Pep Guardiola, could only meet in the semifinals, if they both win their quarterfinals. The first stop on the City route passes by the young Borussia Dortmund, a club that has multiplied its levels of celebrity thanks to the spectacular performances of its forward Erling Haaland, sought after by half the world. For their part, Bayern Munich will fight against a rival full of aspirations and stars, who they faced and defeated in the most recent Champions League final, PSG. Also in the quarterfinals we will see Real Madrid, a perennial threat when it comes to this trophy. And facing none other than Klopp’s Liverpool, who is not going through his best moments, while trying to sharpen his worn fangs. Remember that both met in the Champions League final two seasons ago with a very controversial victory for Real Madrid in the final match. Also in the quarterfinals will be the surprising Porto, who in the previous round eliminated the powerful Juventus, surprising half the world in the process. His rival, Chelsea, has not lost a single game since Tuchel came to coach him, replacing Franz Lampard.
The quarterfinal series
Bayern Munich vs. PSG
Both finalists from last season’s final meet again in the quarterfinals. Bayern continue to look intractable, playing at the level of big favorites. PSG, for its part, now trained by Mauricio Pochettino, maintains a good part of its footballing level, although showing some weaknesses. Of course, he is emotionally helped by having eliminated Barcelona in the round of 16, collapsing a very significant psychological obstacle. It seems that Neymar will be able to arrive at the appointment in top form, after an insistent injury to the thigh. He, along with Kylian Mbappé, are the best offensive options for the Parisian team to eliminate the prodigious Bayern. Like Manchester City, PSG live with the pressing obsession of winning the Champions League. The runner-up of the previous season brought them very close, but a subtitle was not enough. This time, the road feels even more difficult. PSG is an uncomfortable leader in the French league, which has won hands down in the last seven editions. Today, it is difficult for him to make effective player rotations due to the tightness of the local tournament. It seems that PSG requires much more than the doses of electric talent that Mbappé can offer. Nor does it seem that it will reach him with the health of Neymar.
Who qualifies? By collective force. For indisputable quality. Bayern Munich.
Manchester City vs. Borussia Dortmund
Pep Guardiola is in pursuit of an unusual set of trophies. At a local level, he is the absolute leader of the Premier League, a semi-finalist in the FA Cup, a finalist in the League Cup, and internationally he is one of the strongest teams in the Champions League. But will it be enough? Against Dortmund everything seems to indicate yes. It is true that the German team plays very offensive football. But it seems unlikely that they will beat a team as well put together and managed as City. Dortmund’s weakness lies in their defense and it seems unlikely that they will be able to successfully face a versatile attack, in which all players, even those in more defensive positions, end up scoring goals. The City defense, so vilified in previous appointments, has been reborn in the legs of the tough Portuguese Rubén Dias, who forms an impregnable couple with John Stones. Still, Haaland is the most dangerous forward City could face, multiplying the interest in the tie. Kevin Bruyne, after a prolonged injury, has returned to command the midfield and City looks complete and ready to face the young German team.
Qualified? Manchester City.
Chelsea vs. Porto.
Nobody forgets the capital surprise that Porto nailed to Juventus in the round of 16. But do you think Chelsea, led by the relentless Tuchel, is going to fall into ambushes or surprises? Do not even think about it. This will surely be the most boring series of the four. But not for lack of intensity, but for excesses of defensive qualities on both sides. The Portuguese team, led by Sergio Conceiçao, is tough and resistant in the rear, led by a crude and aggressive fighter of great veterancy, like Pepe.
But if there is a team that seems willing not to be surprised by any rival (if you don’t believe me, ask Atlético de Madrid from Cholo Simeone) it is Chelsea led by Tuchel. Since arriving at Chelsea, fired from PSG, the German has not lost a game. Armed with cautious wisdom, from back to front, his defensive capabilities are enormous. So is the intensity with which his players fight each ball in any corner of the field.
Chelsea conveys one word above all else: solidity. It is not a team that plays football with beautiful qualities. He’s pragmatic to the core. And equally effective. Upon his arrival at Chelsea, Tuchel began by organizing the team’s defense. But it didn’t stop there. The gradual development of talented newcomer attackers (Timo Werner, Kai Havertz, Hakeem Ziyech) has been generating a much more complete game in each sector of the field. And while Porto seems to have reached the limit of its strength with the elimination of Juve, for Chelsea ellipsis opens of multiple possibilities.
Thomas Tuchel came up short last season by leading PSG all the way to the final, where they narrowly fell against mighty Bayern Munich. Now, just a few months later, the German coach has a perhaps even greater chance of conquering Europe. His impact on Chelsea has been immense. And it has even been favored by luck. The draw decided that he could only face Bayern Munich or Manchester City in the grand final.
Classify? Chelsea.
Liverpool vs. Real Madrid
We are facing a repeat of the 1981 and 2018 Champions League finals, but also a clash between two teams that have shown weaknesses, as they fight to stay at the top of their leagues. Liverpool suffer a crisis of serious magnitude in the center of their defense. Van Dijk’s prolonged injury, to which we must add those of Joe Gomez and Joël Matip, are at the heart of Liverpool’s irregular campaign. However, the defensive reinforcements obtained during the winter market appear to be starting to work. Both Ben Davis and Ozan Kabak are adding poise and efficiency to a terrific defense. It is true that Liverpool’s defensive crisis caused by the aforementioned long-term injuries has destabilized Klopp’s team. Nor does the absence in midfield of captain Jordan Henderson through injury help. In general, the entire Red cadre, including Salah, has been underperforming. And yet the Egyptian has managed to score 25 goals in 40 games, including in the Champions League. And what is even more important: the Egyptian attacker still has the necessary mordant to transform any opportunity that comes his way into a goal.
Furthermore, the recent return of Portuguese Diogo Jota, the Reds’ offensive hiring this season, greatly enhances Salah’s scoring force on Liverpool’s attacking front. The confrontation with Real Madrid (and its dubious defense, somewhat slow, riveted by the conflicts generated by the unsuccessful renewal of Sergio Ramos) comes at an excellent moment for Liverpool, which is beginning to recover its punch in attack and some balance in its battered defense. There will be those who decide to focus on the morbidity of the Salah-Real Madrid relationship (remember that not long ago there were those who linked the Egyptian striker with the Spanish club for next season), but the truth is that if Liverpool recovers a percentage of its speed lethality, Madrid’s defense is going to have a lot of problems when it comes to defending itself.
Other points in favor of Liverpool are the full recovery of Fabinho in the center of the field, and although it seems counterproductive, it is also the fact that Liverpool has seriously fallen off the English league, keeping the Champions League as the last option for titles For this season. In addition, both Toni Kross and Fede Valverde have physical discomfort that could affect them for the first leg.
We are facing a very curious challenge. The one of two giants who arrive at their appointment somewhat aged and bruised. But if Salah, Sadio Mané and Diogo Jota manage to regain fullness, Liverpool will have many options to win.
Who qualifies? Liverpool.
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