© Reuters
– In this photo, Emir Tamim Al Thani meets Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in Doha before the start of the gas forum.
Neither Qatar nor any other individual country has the capacity to replace Russian gas supplies to Europe with liquefied natural gas in the event of a disruption if a conflict between Russia and Ukraine disrupts supplies.
This was announced by the country’s energy minister at an extraordinary summit of the world’s leading gas exporters. The meeting, scheduled for today last week – three months after the regular one and against the background of US pressure for Qatar-European gas talks – followed by Russia’s recognition of the independence of the “people’s republics” in Donbass.
Washington points to Doha as a possible substitute for liquefied natural gas supplies in the event of pipeline importsif there is a conflict or sanctions. However, Qatar warns that it is unable to offer such quantities as Russia due to long-term contracts already concluded with customers, especially in Asia. In addition, there is a fundamental dispute between Doha and Brussels over the energy market and the re-export of gas, the free movement of which is part of the basic principles of European energy liberalization.
A very difficult task
“Russia, I think, provides 30-40% of supplies to Europe. There is no country that can replace such a volume, it does not have the capacity to do so with liquefied natural gas,” said Minister Saad al-Kaabi. .
However, he described such a substitution as “almost impossible” (and not entirely). The problem is that most quantities of liquefied natural gas are tied to “very clear” long-term contracts.
Reuters and the Financial Times this month wrote that the European Commission has stopped an investigation into Qatar’s long-term treaties. Sources said the decision had nothing to do with attempts to compromise on gas supplies.
According to American media, the United States is negotiating on the subject with buyers – such as Japan, allowing a possible diversion of volumes sent to it. However, Qatar believes the task is complex. “Not that something has not been agreed, the question is whether it is divergent or not,” al-Kaabi said. In addition, even Japan, experts say, needs more supplies as it has run out of supplies due to the cold winter.
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Moreover, European liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals have limited available capacity to take on additional supplies from the United States or other major producers in the event of Russian gas interruptions.
Putin promises gas, Medvedev warns
Diverse comments on the subject were heard from Moscow.
Hours after Germany abandons Nord Stream 2 certification – which is supposed to supply gas to Germany, bypassing Ukraine, but for regulatory reasons still does not work – spot gas prices in Europe rose by nearly 10 percent to 78.55 euros per megawatt, although they remained well below the record 186.25 euros.
Putin then explained in a written statement prepared for the Doha summit that Moscow intends to continue to supply world markets without hindrance.
According to the president, Moscow remains committed to “continuing supplies, including liquefied natural gas, to world markets, improving infrastructure and increasing investment in the gas sector.”
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has issued an order to halt the process of certifying the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. Well. Welcome to the brave new world where Europeans are very soon going to pay €2.000 for 1.000 cubic meters of natural gas!
– Dmitry Medvedev (@MedvedevRussiaE) February 22, 2022
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Another warning came from former Prime Minister and President, now Deputy Chairman of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev.
“Welcome to the new world, where Europeans will soon have to pay 2,000 euros per 1,000 cubic meters,” Medvedev told Twitter.
Russian Energy Minister Nikolai Shulginov, who warned earlier that Nord Stream 2 could lead to a lawsuit over the project’s failure, said Europe could not replace huge volumes of Russian natural gas with resources from other countries.
At the same time, Russia itself has limited opportunities to redirect gas from Europe to other projects.
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