Putin continues to pay the price for his weakness during the Prigozhin uprising: The US has finally agreed to supply Ukraine with cluster munitions that it has been asking for for more than a year. Without a doubt, this decision was the result of Prigogine’s demonstration to the whole world that the Russian king was naked.
It is symptomatic that in making the final decision, Biden thought first of all about the reaction of his European allies, since. for the most part, they joined the ban on cluster munitions, while the crossing of the next brown lines of the Orthodox Fuhrer does not cause any fears in the American administration. It’s no wonder:
how can you seriously be afraid of a person whose cook, without any consequences for himself, shot down either 6 or 7 aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces in a day?
Cluster munitions, of which the US has a huge stockpile, could become what the English call a “game changer” than just a few HIMARS installations did last year. Obviously, the Armed Forces of Ukraine did not succeed in a quick counteroffensive, as in the Kharkiv region last year. However, this does not mean at all that Ukraine will not be able to de-occupy the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions: now the Armed Forces of Ukraine are trying to repeat the tactics of starvation that allowed Kherson to be liberated last year.
Despite persistent attempts by Russian propaganda to create a myth about the defeat of the Ukrainian offensive, this, of course, is not the case. The Armed Forces of Ukraine really faced great resistance from the Russian army, primarily with massive artillery fire. Quickly abandoning further advance at any cost and senseless loss of heavy equipment, Armed Forces of Ukraine switched to tactics of exhausting the opponent.
What Russian military correspondents pass off as desperate attempts to attack in small groups along the entire line of resistance, including the banks of the Dnieper, for the Armed Forces of Ukraine is nothing more than reconnaissance in combat, which is designed to force the Russian army to open artillery fire, which unmasks the guns. Since Western artillery has a huge advantage over Russian artillery in terms of range and accuracy, Ukraine has suffered virtually no artillery casualties since the start of its counter-offensive, while Russia suffers heavy casualties on a daily basis.
The tactics of attacks in small groups allows the Armed Forces of Ukraine to save people and equipment as much as possible for future offensives. Thanks to high-quality artillery and an advantage in reconnaissance, The Armed Forces of Ukraine, even when advancing, suffer less losses in heavy equipment than the Russian army. As a result, sooner or later, the Russian military leadership will face the question of the advisability of holding positions in the south of Ukraine at any cost, because. this threatens with the loss of all heavy equipment in conditions of artillery duels that are absolutely unequal for Russian forces.
This is exactly how last year the Armed Forces of Ukraine forced Russia to leave the right-bank Ukraine, since the retention of this bridgehead for Russia turned into colossal and incomparable losses for the Armed Forces of Ukraine: in an attempt to continue to hold Kherson at any cost, the entire Russian army could easily be left there.
On this background Western allies continue to build up the artillery capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. They are expected to Türkiye will join. The supply of cluster munitions will significantly expand the artillery capabilities of Ukraine: they will not only reduce the consumption of traditional ammunition needed to fight heavy equipment and powerful defensive fortifications, but also significantly increase Russian losses of unarmored vehicles (primarily vehicles), military equipment and manpower , turning many kilometers of trenches into a giant mass grave. It will also give the Allies time to increase their ammo production.
In addition, despite the Kremlin’s wet dreams that the West will get tired of supporting Ukraine, the allies continue to announce more and more new supplies ammunition, heavy, special and aviation technology. Thus, the volumes of deliveries of Bradley and Stryker announced by the United States after the start of the counteroffensive are already close to those transferred earlier and significantly exceed the losses incurred. Thus, Ukraine continues to build up its offensive potential, which it still preserves, while Russia is rapidly losing it.
At the same time, Russia itself continues to contribute to the rapid reduction of its combat potential: believing in the defeat of the Ukrainian counter-offensive, which was not there, the Russian army launched attacks on the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the eastern flank.
The beautiful arrows on the maps drawn by Gerasimov back in the spring were an open secret and assumed that this would be a powerful blow to the rear of the troops of the Armed Forces of Ukraine advancing to the south of Ukraine.
However, it turned out that the Russian army again, like half of winter and almost all of spring, began to beat its head into a wide network of fortifications of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and, as always, suffers heavy losses with zero results.
This state of affairs is extremely beneficial for Ukraine – it knows how to defend very well, and Russia does not know how to attack at all. Even the current tactics of Ukraine in the south is, in fact, an offensive from the defensive: having penetrated into the Russian fortifications in the south to a depth of about 8 km, the Armed Forces of Ukraine were able to impose on Russia the most favorable conditions for military operations. The same picture is observed now at the Antonovsky bridge.
The tactics of strategic defense, to which the Russian army switched by the end of spring, were initially unpromising. It can only delay the inevitable defeat, but not prevent it. As in fascist Germany, the Kremlin hopes for negotiations, a “separate peace”, fatigue of the allies, and so on. But these hopes are in vain: even if there were politicians in the West who considered the option of negotiations with Putin in the event of a delay in hostilities, after the Prigozhin rebellion, this is no longer a question. The incessant and constantly expanding volume of arms supplies to Ukraine clearly demonstrates that there is no talk of any “fatigue”.
In addition, some surprises for Ukraine can be expected following the NATO meeting. Let me remind you last year, it was the NATO meeting that marked the turning point in the sharp expansion of military aid to Ukraine. I would not rule out that, following the results of the current meeting, they could again announce significant deliveries of military equipment to Ukraine, and, for example, provide Ukraine with both long-range missiles, such as the American ATACMS and / or German TAURUS, and a small batch of F-16 fighters, which so the Armed Forces of Ukraine are needed to confront Russian aviation on the southern front.
Under these conditions, Russia will have no other options but to gradually reduce the length of the line of contact, because. the rate of Russian casualties on the current line is too high and will inevitably increase after Ukraine starts using cluster munitions and further expands its artillery capabilities. At the same time, it is obvious that the Ukrainian military leadership is well aware of this: the Armed Forces of Ukraine are now, on the contrary, imposing on Russia the expansion of the line of contact, both along the Dnieper and along the border Belgorod, Kursk and Bryansk regions, where shelling from Ukraine has grown from sporadic into permanent, in order to to overload the Russian army as much as possible.
So the next gestures of goodwill from Russia are not far off.
Alexey Tikhonov
! Spelling and style of the author preserved
2023-07-08 04:59:06
#Waiting #gestures #good
