Russian President Vladimir Putin has declared an existential war, framing the West’s revulsion at its brutal treatment of Ukraine as an insidious plot to “dismember” and subjugate Moscow.
In a deepening crusade against the “degenerate” West, the Russian leader banned the use of foreign words, ordered his employees to give up foreign cars and banned them from using Western technology – including Apple devices.
But so far, Putin’s appeals do not seem to have been heard. Former President Dmitry Medvedev was spotted this week arriving at an event in a convoy of foreign cars – Medvedev himself riding in the back of a luxury Mercedes.
Recent data published by Verstka suggests that this is not an isolated case. The independent media organization revealed this month that Russian government agencies had allocated more than 53 million rubles ($570,000) for foreign cars, a week after Putin ordered officials to stop using them.
Another Russian opposition publication, Agency, published a report this week detailing how officials at Russia’s defense ministry, agriculture ministry and state-owned technology corporation Rostec are still using Apple products despite a ban issued in July amid concerns that Western governments can compromise such devices.
The refusal or inability of Russian officials to comply with Putin’s anti-Western orders comes at a sensitive political time for the “boss”. The Kremlin’s costly war against Ukraine shows no sign of abating, and Western powers show no appetite for easing sanctions that have isolated the Russian economy. The ruble is in freefall and Moscow’s decades-long effort to create a “fortress economy” has had limited success.
With the rebellion of the Wagner group and concerns over the perceived lethargic reaction of the Russian authorities to it, Putin’s position at the top of the Kremlin kleptocracy may not be as secure as it once was, writes Newsweek.
Moscow has spent years trying to promote domestic alternatives to foreign goods. Russia’s reliance on Western technology is both a practical and a political problem – an economic Achilles’ heel and a symbol of Russian technological inferiority.
Western sanctions and capital flight mean that many goods are no longer available on the Russian market. The order to stop the use of foreign cars and Apple goods “will be difficult to implement because you can’t find many alternatives in the market,” Oleg Ignatov, a senior Russia analyst at the Crisis Group think tank, told Newsweek.
The Russian car market is in a particularly difficult situation. Last year was the worst for the industry since the collapse of the Soviet Union, with production down 67 percent, according to data released by the federal statistics office Rosstat. Local manufacturers can’t seem to pick up the slack from foreign firms fleeing Putin’s war.
“Many foreign companies, Western foreign companies and Korean foreign companies have left the Russian market,” says Ignatov. “If you wanted to buy a cheap car, you would buy a Korean car, but now that’s not possible. So the main cars on the Russian market right now are Chinese.”
“The problem is that they don’t produce enough cars,” adds Ignatov about the Russian manufacturers. “And officials usually need cars of a special standard, business class cars. Russia hardly produces such cars. Even if officials use them, it is impossible to find them.”
“Sooner or later they will localize the production of Chinese cars in Russia or maybe Iranian cars,” says Ignatov.
Russia is also unable to meet the needs of the modern telecommunications market, Ignatov believes. Although Moscow may produce smartphones, it does not have an effective standalone operating system.
“They don’t have much of a choice,” he added, “They’ll have to use smartphones with either Android or Chinese operating systems. Russia has tried to produce its own operating system – it’s called Aurora and it’s a Russian operating system – but not yet works.”
This week, Russian regulator Roskomnadzor said the Aurora system needs $3.2 billion in investment before it can be used.
“This order, as well as the order with cars, will be very difficult to fulfill, because they have almost no alternative, explains Ignatov. “The Russian option is super expensive. It has to evolve. And that means if they get rid of the iPhone, they’ll use China’s operating systems instead.”
For decades, Putin carefully prevented the emergence of alternative Russian leaders. Even now, 18 months into a disastrous war, there seems little indication that Russian elites are ready to mobilize against him, despite their many grievances.
The Wagner revolt in June was not aimed at Putin, but rather an attempt by Prigozhin to oust his rivals in the Ministry of Defense – namely Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov.
But the tremors of the short-lived coup appear to have shaken the foundations of Putin’s “mafia state”. As German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said: “I believe he is weakened because it shows that autocratic power structures have cracks in them and he is not as firmly in the saddle as he always claims.”
The slow reaction of the Russian authorities to the rebellion is also notable. Initially surprised, some military, security and intelligence officials then hesitated to support the Kremlin, even as Wagner’s column descended on the capital.
The problem with “Wagner” does not go away. Putin condemned Prigozhin’s “treason” but quickly agreed to grant amnesty to Wagner’s financier and his fighters in exchange for their exile in Belarus under the watch of President Alexander Lukashenko.
Although the Ministry of Defense is seeking to take over all fighters and equipment that have not left the country, taking control of the group’s lucrative overseas operations – particularly in Africa – will be difficult.
Prigogine seems to be out of favor. The oligarch has repeatedly been spotted back in Russia, even meeting publicly with national leaders on the sidelines of Putin’s St Petersburg summit on Africa in July.
Wagner’s continued existence poses a challenge to Putin’s autocracy. “The problem with Prigogine is similar to his problem with Lukashenko,” Mark Voiger, a former special adviser on Russian and Eurasian affairs to then-commander of US forces in Europe, General Ben Hodges, told Newsweek.
Both are “quite unruly subordinates who don’t want to be fully controlled, and they each control their own little empire; one in Belarus, the other in Africa,” explains Voiger, who is now a non-resident senior fellow at the Center for European Analysis and professor at the American University in Kyiv.
“Putin is probably forced to actually put up with them and put up with them. Maybe he has his own plans to one day take control. But for now, Putin has to put up with their insubordination and find an outlet for their aggressive behavior.”
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2023-08-21 19:52:00
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