Russian President Vladimir Putin will pressure Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko to make concessions on the integration of the two countries during his visit to Minsk.
The Kremlin seeks to use the Union State to establish Russian control over Belarus.
Lukashenka is already creating informational conditions to deflect demands away from Russian integration, as he has done for decades.
Lukashenka stressed that “Belarus is not governed by anyone but us” and that Belarus is ready to build relations with Russia, but their ties “should always stem from the fact that we are a sovereign and independent state”.
Lukashenko has so far largely resisted increased Russian calls for integration and has refused to commit Belarusian forces to participation in the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The Minsk visit could indicate that Putin is trying to create the conditions for a renewed offensive in Ukraine
The ISW currently rates a Russian invasion of Ukraine from Belarus as low, but possible. Belarusian forces are unlikely to invade Ukraine without a Russian strike force. It is by no means obvious that Lukashenka will send Belarusian troops to fight alongside Russian troops in Ukraine as well.
However, the meeting between Putin and Lukashenko will, at the very least, facilitate a separate Russian intelligence operation aimed at breaking Ukraine’s will and the West’s willingness to support Ukraine. This meeting will strengthen a Russian information operation aimed at convincing Ukrainians and Westerners that Russia can attack Ukraine from Belarus. The continued Russian attacks on Kiev, the constant deployment of troops in Belarus and the ongoing bellicose rhetoric are all part of this information operation.
The Kremlin is unlikely to break the Ukrainians’ will to fight. Moscow is likely trying to get the West to admit that Ukraine cannot fundamentally change the current front line and that the war has effectively reached a stalemate.
ISW believes this conclusion is inaccurate and that Ukraine has a good chance of recovering a significant critical area in the coming months.
Key findings from ISW analysts
- Russian attacks continue to pose a serious threat to the Ukrainian civilian population, although they do not improve Russia’s ability to conduct offensive operations.
- Dmitry Medvedev made inflammatory but inappropriate comments in support of information operations aimed at weakening Western support for Ukraine.
- Lukashenko is already creating informational conditions to reject calls for Russian integration.
- Putin’s upcoming visit to Minsk could indicate that he is creating the conditions for a new offensive from Belarusian territory.
- The meeting between Putin and Lukashenko is likely to lead to a separate Russian intelligence operation aimed at breaking Ukraine’s will and the West’s willingness to support Ukraine.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin ignored worst estimates of the potential damage to the Russian economy before launching his full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
- Russia continues to face economic problems which are a direct consequence of the war in Ukraine.
- Russian troops carried out counterattacks in the Svatovo and Kremennaya area.
- Russian troops continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut and Avdeevka-Donetsk directions.
- Russian troops continued to defend themselves on the left bank of the Dnieper.
- Russian officials are likely to campaign for the recruitment of additional military personnel under the contract.
- Russian occupation authorities continued to seize civilian infrastructure to provide assistance to wounded Russian servicemen.
Remember that first Said the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhnythat Russia can resume the offensive in February, at best in March and, at worst, in January.
We wrote it too according to Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry KulebaRussia hopes to be able to restore its military capabilities by the end of January – beginning of February.
Read urgent and important messages about Russia’s war against Ukraine on the channel RBC-Ukraine on Telegram.
