Russian troops heading to Europe. Vladimir Putin responds with this threat to the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO. But will that work? “He wants a kind of Iron Curtain 2.0, but Putin does not have the resources for that at the moment.”
Putin promised the military reinforcement this week during his annual speech in Moscow. He also addressed NATO. The aim of the alliance is to protect the security and freedom of member countries such as the Netherlands.
With Finland and Sweden, the alliance now includes 32 countries. The Finnish accession in particular is a thorn in Putin’s side. Because Russia shares a border of more than 1,300 kilometers with that country.
Putin promises to firmly secure that border, although he does not yet want to say how. He did explain the reason. According to him, the new NATO expansion is a sign of aggression. Sweden and Finland see this completely differently. These countries sought rapprochement with NATO precisely because of Russian aggression in Ukraine.
Possibly an Iron Curtain 2.0
According to Patrick Bolder, the expansion of NATO does not mean that Russia must better defend the west of the country. “Contrary to what Putin keeps saying, NATO is not an offensive organization at all,” says the military specialist at the Hague Center for Strategic Studies (HCSS).
Putin thinks differently and wants stronger defense in the west of his country. Bolder doubts whether the Russian president will achieve that.
“The majority of all land forces are now fighting in Ukraine. As long as that is the case, we really should not expect large concentrations of troops near the border with Finland,” says Bolder. “But that will change if Russia is done with Ukraine for whatever reason.”
Then Russia can expand its military power in the west of the country, and according to Bolder we will go back decades in time. “Because then an Iron Curtain 2.0 will emerge with NATO troops on the west side of the long border, and Russian soldiers on the east side.”
Iron Curtain
The Iron Curtain refers to the tensions during the Cold War between the West and the Soviet Union. A physical boundary and one of ideas.
For example, countries on the west side of the Iron Curtain, led by America, were followers of capitalism. On the eastern side, the Soviet Union and affiliated smaller states were characterized by communism.
But the border was also physical. Almost 7,000 kilometers long and with the Berlin Wall as its most famous part. The fall of that wall in 1989 was a crucial turning point. Because not much later the Soviet Union also fell apart and the Cold War came to an end.
Hundreds of thousands of Russian troops are now fighting in Ukraine
International researchers also point to this focus of the Russian armed forces. According to the British think tank, there are: Royal United Services Institute currently 470,000 Russian troops in Ukraine.
Patrick Bolder therefore does not see it happening anytime soon that large groups of soldiers will be sent to the border with Finland. “There may be a number of new barracks where troops can be stationed in the long term. And also consider building up weapons stocks in the area.”
With all the new technologies, according to the military expert, there is no need for a permanent army at the border. “It is not the case that soldiers lie there 24 hours a day peering over a gun barrel to the other side,” says Bolder. “With satellites, unmanned aircraft and radar systems, enemy attacks are detected in time.”
NATO is also making full military preparations
Military preparations are not only taking place on the Russian side. This year, NATO will hold the largest joint exercise since the Cold War. Training sessions will be held with 90,000 troops in the coming months, also in Sweden and Finland.
In addition, the United States signed defense agreements with Sweden and Finland. American troops can therefore train in those countries, and according to Bolder, America will also place so-called “forward supplies” there. This concerns weapons and ammunition.
“So that when it is necessary, you just have to fly into the people and you can immediately drive the weapon systems out of the garages and take action.” It all sounds like preparing for war. However, according to the HCSS military expert, it does not have to come to this.
“NATO is not about attacks, but about credible deterrence. This consists of a number of elements. Such as the promise to jointly defend a NATO country if it is attacked. But also a well-organized armed forces and the credible escalation of the risk to nuclear war.”
Russia is also successful with deterrence
A strong defense to prevent an attack: the course of the Ukraine war proves, according to Bolder, that this tactic works. For example, NATO countries have not yet been attacked, while they fully support Ukraine with military resources. Although he sees that Russia is successful with the same tactics.
“Putin regularly threatens nuclear escalation, and that also seems to be working. For example, Germany and America still do not want to send long-range missiles to Ukraine. We are deterred from supplying weapons systems that are not too heavy. And Russia is deterred by, for example, not Poland to attack, where all military transports to Ukraine take place.”
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2024-03-01 16:39:00
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