Putin’s Political Opponent Alexei Navalny Dies, Boosting His Power and Challenging the West
The recent death of Alexei Navalny, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s most prominent political opponent, has left Putin seemingly jubilant and in a position of increased power. While addressing a group of workers and students in Chelyabinsk, Putin made no mention of Navalny’s death, instead focusing on the technological progress he had witnessed. With Navalny’s demise, Putin’s influence continues to grow, especially as military assistance for Ukraine remains blocked in Congress and Ukrainian forces retreat on the battlefield. This surge in power comes just a month before the upcoming presidential election in Russia, which Putin is expected to win.
Navalny’s death not only eliminates a significant political rival but also serves as a warning to others who may challenge Putin’s rule. The swift and public downing of Yevgeniy Prigozhin, the Wagner mercenary commander who led a mutiny against Russia’s military leadership, sent a chilling message to opponents of the Kremlin’s current course. Additionally, Russian election authorities recently blocked liberal antiwar candidate Boris Nadezhdin from the presidential ballot, demonstrating the regime’s intolerance for any form of dissent.
Andrei Kolesnikov, a Moscow-based senior research fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, believes that Putin is now “outside of any competition” and unstoppable in his triumph. However, some experts caution that Putin could overreach. Navalny’s stature among certain members of the Russian elite and the possibility of him being viewed as a martyr could pose challenges for Putin. Furthermore, there is a risk that the West may toughen its stance against Putin’s regime and increase assistance to Ukraine.
Navalny had called for a nationwide protest on the day of the March presidential election, urging voters to gather at the polls at noon as a sign of dissent against Putin. While it remains uncertain how many would have responded to Navalny’s call due to fears of Putin’s repressive regime, authorities may not have wanted to leave anything to chance. The Moscow authorities are currently highly sensitive to any details, according to Kolesnikov.
The subdued display of mourning for Navalny in Moscow, with few individuals daring to challenge the authorities by leaving flowers, reflects the transformation Russia has undergone since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. In the past, thousands took to the streets of Moscow to protest Navalny’s arrest in January 2021, similar to the protests in Minsk that threatened to topple the Belarusian president in August 2020. However, today, any protesters would face a massive armed presence, making street protests nearly impossible.
While Navalny’s death may have bolstered Putin’s power, it also presents a range of problems for him. Navalny’s unmatched recognition, significance to the elites, and involvement in domestic politics set him apart from other opposition figures. Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of R.Politik, a Russian political consultancy, expects a significant wave of anti-Navalny repressions to follow as the regime grapples with his legacy.
In Moscow, Russian business executives are anxiously observing whether their efforts to win over part of the U.S. Republican Party to Russia’s point of view could be undone by Navalny’s death. Already, some GOP members have begun denouncing those who recently sided with Putin, while President Biden criticizes Republicans for blocking a bill that included aid for Ukraine. This turn of events may complicate Putin’s relationship with the Republican Party.
Overall, Navalny’s death has undoubtedly strengthened Putin’s position and challenged the West. However, it remains to be seen how this development will shape Russia’s political landscape and its relationship with the international community moving forward.