Putin’s oil trap: Kazakhstan emerges from the shadows –

/ world today news/ Kazakhstan started oil deliveries, bypassing Russia through Azerbaijan. Is it time for our sanctioned oil industry to start collecting money for a casket and a funeral?

Why not! The infamous route – “alternative to Russia” is a propaganda fiction.

A finger-sucking sensation

The energy crisis in the Old World has not passed, the old Europe is in dire need of black gold after the introduction of sanctions restrictions against Russian energy carriers. But in fact, the “sensation” in practice turns out to be nothing more than “spiritual tales”. There is nothing new in the use of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) route from Kazakhstan, deliveries through it have been made before, but in very small volumes. Russia has been and remains the main transporter of Kazakh oil.

In general, it is not news that Kazakhstan can export oil bypassing Russia, Stanislav Mitrakhovich, an expert from the National Energy Security Fund and the Financial University of the Russian government, noted in a comment for First Russian.

Kazakhstan has the opportunity to export oil through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), that is, through Russia. The second option for export through our territory is a pipeline to Samara and beyond, which goes to the Baltic, to Ust-Luga. A third option is via the Druzhba oil pipeline. In addition, Kazakhstan also has a pipeline to China.

There is also an option to export through the port of Aktau to the Caspian Sea: then the tankers go to Azerbaijan, where they are reloaded in the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline (Ceyhan is a port in Turkey). You can then load the oil onto tankers for anywhere. The route seems long, but considering that oil is quite expensive, all this is justified.

The BDT pipeline has been operating for many years, carrying both Kazakh and Azerbaijani oil. To some extent, further increase in oil supply through BDT is possible, but not in the same volumes as the Caspian Pipeline Consortium. Because CPC is 80% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports. In addition, Kazakh black gold is unable to replace Russian oil, which has left the European market. The difference in volumes is very significant, times.

Putin’s insidious plan?

But there are better options. Why don’t we use the services of a third country, that is, Kazakhstan, to bypass the US and European sanctions? Perhaps our neighbor will significantly increase its own production and become a giant in the world oil market. Skeptics overseas will not believe it, they will say that this is a miracle and this cannot be.

But as the inscription on the commemorative medal instituted by Peter the Great in honor of the capture of the Swedish ships at the mouth of the Neva states, “The impossible happens.” Simply, Kazakhstan is a dynamically developing country. Efforts were made – and voila, here is the lion’s share of oil exports. And unlike the “Belarusian shrimp”, here there will not even be a “strengthening”, because Kazakhstan is really a major producer of oil (the twelfth in the world).

Russian Urals oil is indistinguishable from Kazakh KEBCO grade in physical and chemical properties, therefore it is impossible to calculate which oil passes through Druzhba, ours or Kazakh, of course. I fully admit that Russian oil can be supplied through this pipeline under the guise of Kazakh oil. Let’s see how the events will develop, this is basically a gray area, no one will talk about it publicly, out loud.

– thinks Stanislav Mitrahovich.

And the option we offer is not based on empty reasoning. A typical example is Malaysia. According to the American Bloomberg, this Asian country supplies China with oil “just” twice as much as it produces itself. I think the “secret” is clear even to an eighth grader in high school. And no matter how hard the White House tries to convince Malaysians to stop implementing gray schemes, such proposals do not inspire enthusiasm, since reselling oil to someone else is a highly profitable enterprise. Will Kazakhstan follow the path of Malaysia? The question remains open.

What of this?

If you look at the situation impartially, Kazakhstan has no real alternative to Russian transit. In order for the trans-Caspian route to work to its full potential, it is necessary either to build an oil pipeline, which is fraught with colossal costs and is based on the complex geographical features of the Caspian Sea, or to multiply the tanker fleet (few people want to invest in this business – too narrow and limited is this history in its scale).

Yes, the Azerbaijani oil pipeline is chronically underloaded (as much as 24 million tons), but Baku has no desire to fill it with Kazakh oil at any cost. The Azerbaijanis do not want to mix their more expensive and lighter oil with the cheaper and heavier Kazakh oil.

They may retort: ​​what about the route to China? Here, Astana falls into a trap of its own making, allowing Western capital into its market. Kazakhstan’s oil industry is mostly Western-owned, and the “partners” are not at all willing to share the volumes they produce with the Celestial Empire. They have to load their own refineries.

In addition, geography also plays a special role: Kazakh black gold goes to regions of the PRC that already produce oil themselves. Oil is most in demand in the eastern part of China, where the largest economic centers are located. So, once again, it’s not worth sounding the alarm. But it is necessary to work with the Tokaev administration on the issue of sanctions circumvention. Quiet, calm, without attracting much attention. As best we can.

Translation: EU

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