From the heights of the Kremlin, beyond the blood-red walls that separate him from ordinary mortals, Vladimir Putin is watching the diplomatic dance of the West. One after another, they parade in Red Square or call him and talk to him sometimes for two hours. Diplomatic activity has been at its peak for ten days, but none of them has received the slightest concession from the Kremlin master. Joe Biden, the president of the world’s leading power, Emmanuel Macron, the leader of Europe, EU officials, the influential Germany, the stormy Boris Johnson: all were rejected by Vladimir Putin, president of a huge but isolated country with a GDP equivalent to that of Spain and whose demographics are declining every year. This is what political analyst Isabel Laser wrote in an article for the French newspaper Le Figaro.
“Our feeling is that Vladimir Putin remains in the same rather offensive position, believing that it was not he who took the initiative for the escalation,” but Westerners approaching the Russian border, a source at the Elysee Palace said after another telephone conversation between Emmanuel Macron and the Russian president. Saturday. They have the same feeling in Washington, where the conversation between Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden did not lead to a “fundamental change.” Not only have diplomatic efforts been stifled by Russian snow, but the Kremlin master has continued military escalation along Ukraine’s borders, amassing more troops and equipment. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan called a possible Russian offensive a “very, very real opportunity”. The invasion could begin before the end of the Olympics, he said, with “air bombardment and rocket fire”.
Last chance to get Ukraine back
Why is this mystery on the part of Vladimir Putin, who risks increasing his isolation on the international stage and dawning new sanctions? Maybe because it’s time for him to finish. The United States has weakened since withdrawing from Afghanistan and wants to focus its international efforts on China. Europe is divided and without a will to power. Emmanuel Macron reiterated on Saturday the “determination to act” on Westerners, and Joe Biden threatened “severe and rapid consequences” in the event of an invasion. But why would Putin back down when Westerners keep saying they will not deploy their armies in the event of war …
Russia, for its part, has rebuilt its army as well as its place on the international stage. It is addicted to Europe’s dependence on its gas and is taking advantage of old President Joe Biden’s hesitations. For a man turned to the past like Vladimir Putin, the weakness of the West is perhaps the last chance to regain Ukraine, whose independence he never managed to swallow. And to regain control of the former sphere of influence of the Soviet Union, he who believes that the collapse of the USSR is “the worst geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century.” After the Maidan revolution in 2014, the window for the Kremlin master really closed. Ukraine has not fallen as ripe as the Kremlin had hoped, President Vladimir Zelensky has tightened his policy toward Moscow, and pro-Western sentiment has intensified in Ukraine. “Now is the time or never to take advantage of the West’s shortcomings to reap the dividends, in particular the neutralization of Ukraine,” said a diplomat familiar with the matter.
Detached from the world
Invasion would be just one option, in addition to hybrid warfare and cyber attacks, energy pressure, bluffing operations, manipulation and disinformation, and even conspiracy plots against President Zelenski. Since the beginning of the crisis, the French and Americans have sometimes had different interpretations of the military deployment on Ukraine’s borders. The White House has declared the inevitability of a military attack for almost two months. The Elysee Palace is more cautious. “In Vladimir Putin’s words, there are no indications that he will go on the offensive,” a source at the Elysee Palace said on Saturday after a telephone conversation between the two presidents. Whether in Chechnya, Georgia or Crimea, Vladimir Putin has never warned before military intervention in the former “near abroad” of the USSR. He has also never embarked on military operations too severe to withstand his country, which would undoubtedly be an invasion of Ukraine.
But is Vladimir Putin still the same as before? Since the beginning of the crisis with Kovid, he has broken away from the world and isolated himself in the Kremlin, which has become a besieged citadel. During a five-hour conversation with him last week in Moscow, Emmanuel Macron saw a president different from the one he had received at Fort Breganson some time ago. “He found Vladimir Putin tougher. It was difficult for him to interrupt his long monologues and return him to current topics. Putin was obsessed with history, making historical revisionism, constantly going back to a time when NATO had not yet integrated. Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic in 1997, “said a diplomatic source. Will this radicalization of the Russian president push him to attack?
In any case, Joe Biden’s promise of non-interference not only gives the green light to Vladimir Putin to intervene. It also contributes, by undermining the Ukrainian economy, to weakening the country and therefore serving the Kremlin’s interests.
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