The events in Sudan look much more promising for Prigozhin than the war in Ukraine, Nesmiyan believes.
Political expert Anatoly Nesmiyan is sure that Putin’s chef so often talks about the departure of his mercenaries from Bakhmut, as a better offer from Sudan appeared on the horizon.
Now the balance of power is being fixed in the country between the government army and the Janjaweed militias, Nesmiyan wrote on his page in Telegram channel.
If the “Wagnerites” take one of the sides, they will be able to win together. The army of Sudan now controls the oil, and the militias control the gold of Sudan. Prigozhin can easily demand payment in both gold and oil. Both sides of the conflict are actively seeking military assistance from outside, and the militias need it more, since the Sudanese army has already enlisted help from the Egyptian army.
However for this purpose, Prigozhin will have to save the backbone of his mercenariesand not put them all on the ruins of Bakhmut, the expert noted, which is why the date of May 10 was announced in the ultimatum to the RF Ministry of Defense.
Kadyrov reacted to the ultimatum by offering to replace the “Wagnerites” with “Kadyrovites” for a while.
On the other hand, the National Guard may try to prevent the mercenaries from leaving their positions, but in reality this will mean a real clash between the parties.
The Kremlin will just have to sit and wait. If the mercenaries leave Bakhmut, then the city will completely come under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. If you try to stop the “Wagnerites” by force, then there will be a direct clash between the RF Armed Forces and the mercenaries.
Nesmiyan said that there was not long to wait. However it should be remembered that mercenaries go for money to kill, but not to die.
Previously, analysts from ISW spoke about new fights near Khromovowhere the RF Ministry of Defense transferred volunteers from the Nevsky battalion.
Recall that Biletsky described paint details 3rd OShBr against the 72nd brigade in the Bakhmut direction.
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2023-05-10 05:17:08