According to US intelligence and NATO officials, the increasingly ‘probably’ that soldiers from Belarus will soon be fighting with the Russians in Ukraine.
Belarus, as a neighbor of both Russia and Ukraine, plays an interesting role in the war. Even before the invasion, several tens of thousands of Russian soldiers gathered in the border region of Belarus, less than a three-hour drive from the Ukrainian capital Kiev.
Springboard for Putin
It was called a joint exercise, but these Russians never returned home. Instead, they invaded Ukraine from the north on Friday, February 25. Towards Kiev for one of Russia’s main goals for this war: to overthrow the pro-Western government of Volodimir Zelensky.
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To understand why Russia can use neighboring Belarus as a springboard for its war of aggression, we have to go back to August 2020. When tens of thousands of Belarusians went after the highly controversial election victory of Lukashenko out on the street in protest. Lukashenko, who has been in power since July 1994 (!) and is therefore also called the last dictator in Europe, crushed the popular uprising with a heavy hand down, and got Putin’s support.
Union state
Putin gave that support for a clear reason. He fantasizes about the union state of former Soviet states – with himself as the absolute leader. “Putin has an imperial image in his mind of a union between Russia, Belarus and Ukraine,” said Russia correspondent Eva Hartog. “This has already been achieved to a large extent with Belarus. There seems to be no question of an independent Belarusian policy now.”
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In recent years, the two leaders met regularly. That last happened on Friday, March 11 in Moscow, while the Russian invasion of Ukraine was in full swing. “He and I met not only as heads of state, but also as friends,” said Lukashenko afterwards about that conversation. Then to debunk the rumors about Putin’s mental problems: “Putin is absolutely fit, he is fitter than ever. This is a completely sensible, healthy person. Physically and mentally – he is an athlete.”
It’s not a healthy friendship at all. Hartog: “Putin wants to completely dominate Lukashenko and use Belarus for his own agenda. That seems to work: in recent months we have seen that Russia has used Belarus to surround Ukraine.”
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Under pressure
Now the question is whether Lukashenko actually sends his own soldiers to the front in Ukraine. “If Putin’s situation in Ukraine becomes desperate because he’s stalled, he may well put pressure on Belarus to provide troops,” said Michael Kemper, professor of Eastern European studies at the University of Amsterdam. “At the same time, the question is whether those soldiers are well motivated to fight.”
The latter is because Belarus, after more than 70 years of being part of the Soviet Union, became an independent country in 1991. Kemper: “Belarus wants to maintain that independence and prefers no Russian interference. The Belarusian soldiers also do not want to become part of Russia.”
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splits
For example, Lukashenko is in a difficult split. He has become very dependent on Putin for his own position. Kemper: “Lukashenko sees his own country being swallowed up by Russia. But if Putin falls, Lukashenko’s chair will also waver.”
At the same time, Lukashenko will face major consequences if Belarus joins the fight. “For Belarus, as for Russia, that would mean new sanctions and complete economic isolation,” said correspondent Hartog. “That would again cause economic problems at home and destabilize the country. But in the end, the question of whether Belarus gets directly involved in the war is not taken in Minsk, but in Moscow.”
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