The war in Ukraine showed two faces this week: while the military situation remained unchanged, the diplomatic conflict between Russia and the West escalated significantly.
While the EU was preparing a sixth round of sanctions, Russia made good on its threat and turned off the gas supply to member states Poland and Bulgaria.
The EU Commission condemned this rather arbitrary decision and spoke of a “provocation” and “blackmail”. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen: “This step by Russia is another wake-up call that we need to work with reliable partners on our energy independence.”
The state-owned Gazprom company’s decision followed days of increasingly heated threats.
After Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov mused aloud about nuclear strikes, Vladimir Putin issued a new warning to Ukraine’s western allies: “Should someone from outside intervene in the current situation and direct unacceptable strategic threats against us, then we will respond in a flash.”
Putin’s comments betray a certain frustration at the invasion, which has become a trench warfare, with its unexpectedly high losses.
On the other hand, the US government mobilized 40 global allies to provide long-term military support to Ukraine. Among them was Germany, for example, which made another political U-turn and promised Ukraine heavy tanks for the first time.
But Washington did even more: Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin sharpened his tone towards Russia this week: “We want to make sure that Russia no longer has the same ability to terrorize its neighbors in the future.”
This changed the USA’s war aim.
An interview with Barry Pavel, Vice President of the Atlantic Council in Washington.
Euronews: When Secretary Austin says the US wants to ensure that Russia no longer has the ability to terrorize its neighbors, it sounds like he’s talking about Saddam Hussein. How do you rate this?
Pavel: First of all, I appreciate this idea. We don’t want countries that are serial aggressors. And under Putin, Russia has become such a serial aggressor. Secondly, I would have just done it and not talked about it. Because talking about it is not necessarily helpful in diplomatic efforts.
Especially not when the US and Europe want to forge a global coalition. Because there is a risk that if we make the conflict with Putin appear as a conflict between Russia and the West, we will lose countries like India, Saudi Arabia and others.
We then lose their votes at the UN, sanctions, etc. So it’s better not to talk about such plans.
Euronews: What exactly can the US do to limit Russia’s military power?
Pavel: They are already doing it. There are three areas that President Biden announced back in December. First the economic sanctions, probably the toughest in world history. They prevent Russia from building new military capabilities and they are a major problem for other parts of the Russian economy. Secondly, the stronger Ukraine’s defense capability is made, the more they can destroy the invading Russian army and thereby Moscow’s ability to attack Moldova or the Baltic States.
And thirdly, we know what Putin actually wants, namely to reorganize Europe. That is why we must strengthen NATO, which is to be finally decided at the alliance’s summit in June. This is yet another measure to limit Russia’s ability to bully its neighbors.
Euronews: Lavrov has said that supplying Western arms to Ukraine will only lead Kyiv to sabotage talks with Moscow. What do you think of this argument?
Pavel: Well, this is the same foreign minister who told us before the invasion that nobody should worry or get hysterical that there would be no invasion. As far as his credibility. No, I think the argument is wrong. Russia has not conducted these talks seriously. They first agreed to humanitarian corridors and then fired at them.
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