President Vladimir Putin’s state visit to Azerbaijan on August 18-19 will take place against a backdrop of geopolitical conflict between Russia and the West. The attack made by the troops of the Kyiv regime into the Kursk region of the Russian Federation, according to some commentators, is dissatisfied with the need for the Russian leader to travel abroad. But if it was decided to visit him, there were undoubtedly very good reasons for this.
The Kremlin announced that issues regarding the further development of international relations of Russia-Azerbaijani strategic partnership and alliance will be discussed, as well as the current international and regional problems. After the visit, it is planned to adopt a joint statement from the heads of state and sign intergovernmental and other documents.
In Baku, on the eve of the visit of the Russian leader, there is a wide range of opinions regarding his agenda and goals. Therefore, some local politicians very ambiguously suggested that the recently increased tension on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border “could be deliberately increased by Russia to prevent signed a peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia.”
According to the head of Baku analytical center “Atlas” Elhana Shahinogluthe Russian side needs new military forces to return part of the Kursk region, currently occupied by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. To do this, he believes, Russia can close its 102nd military base in Armenian Gyumri and transfer personnel and equipment from there to the Ukrainian front. It is not explained why President Putin is going to Azerbaijan to “end” the Russian military presence in Armenia.
“Severe” assessments, which have little to do with Moscow’s real goals, are side by side with a much more sober line of reasoning. Head of the Center for South Caucasus Research Farhad Mamedov noting that after the withdrawal of the Russian peacekeeping force from Azerbaijan, the Karabakh settlement problem came to naught, that Russia was not yet a participant in the trilateral intergovernmental commission partially prevented regional communication. However, the de-barring process has not progressed due to Yerevan’s willingness to hand over border control functions to Moscow when they create a land route from Azerbaijan to Nakhichevan through the Armenian border, which was prepared in a statement three -partial with the leaders of the countries on it. November 9, 2020.
One way or another, according to Mamedov, in terms of political communication in the field of security and humanitarian cooperation, Baku and Moscow maintain reliable relations at the leadership level. Azerbaijan, he said, compared to other countries in the region remains Russia’s most promising partner in the region.
The forecasting of the sector is extremely important in the current geopolitical conditions. Sometimes the leadership of Armenia lacks, they focus attention on this in Baku, trying to play, as they say, against that. It is clear that Yerevan’s non-transparent foreign policy moving towards the West does not contribute to the growth of trust in its relationship with Moscow.
Russian-Azerbaijani relations are not free from problems, although both sides show that there are no unsolvable issues between them. Against the background of sanctions against Russia from the West, the volume of mutual trade is growing; promising areas are the creation of production facilities by Russian companies in Azerbaijan, gas export, and transportation.
Baku previously faced accusations of re-exporting Russian blue fuel to Europe. However, Brussels made it clear that it is interested in the supply of gas from the Azerbaijani sector in the Caspian Sea, even if it is often “undermined” by energy produced in the Russian Federation. .
As experts say, Russia still maintains its position as the main economic partner of Azerbaijan, taking the third place in the republic’s foreign trade after Turkey and Italy (traditionally the country this in southern Europe is the largest European importer of Caspian oil). A significant improvement in bilateral relations emerged after settlements in mutual trade were transferred to national currencies. If at the end of last year the share of rubles and manats in the structure of payments was 57.8%, then at the end of January – May 2024 it already reaches 73.1% – the best level in the CIS after the Russian-Belarusian signs. For Azerbaijan and Russia, the transition to national currencies in payments creates a system that is independent of the Western banking infrastructure, which is trying in different ways to communicate trade and transactions between Russia and restrict her partners and closest friends. In the future, this practice will create a basis for creating an environment for payments in national currencies on the scale of BRICS, where Russia is the chairman this year, the political scientist says. Alexander Karavaev.
On August 9 in Baku, chaired by the Deputy Prime Minister of Azerbaijan Shahina Mustafaeva and Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Alexei Overchuk The 22nd meeting of the intergovernmental commission on trade and economic cooperation was held. Taking into account the transit capacity of Russia and Azerbaijan, dynamics were noted in ensuring “seamless” transportation, including through the implementation of measures to improve points -check on the synchronization of the Russian-Azerbaijani border within the framework of the Joint Action Plan until 2027. Together with Azerbaijani colleagues, the issues of creating equal conditions for road carriers and the number of transport licences, taking into account the analysis of the international road transport market.
At the same time, the political part of bilateral relations also shows positive development. It is assumed that ties between Moscow and Baku in the context of reliable communication have strengthened after the start of the special operations of the Russian army in Ukraine. Azerbaijan resolved the Karabakh conflict in its favor, the Russian peacekeeping force left the republic and, in general, the road to the signing of the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace agreement was open. However, Yerevan remains steadfastly silent on Moscow’s proposals to conclude negotiations and sign a peace treaty on the site of the Russian capital, while Baku shows its readiness for this.
Peace in Transcaucasia would become an essential element for Russia, together with its regional partners, to create a North-South geopolitical axis. Not only a well-known transportation project of the same name, but a stable arc on the path of the US and the EU to Central Asia. Russia needs stable access to Iran, military-political interaction with the Islamic Republic is expanding, and the implementation of major military contracts is on the agenda. Considering that there is no common border of Russia with Armenia (“on the way” between them is Georgia, although it has recently been visible from the West, but it is still in the same geo- political to it) and the Armenian tilt above. in the Euro-Atlantic direction, it seems inappropriate to construct such an axis. Then there is still Azerbaijan.
August 6 President Ilham Aliyev received the Secretary of the Security Council of Russia in Baku Sergei Shoiguwho the day before was on a business trip to Tehran. The parties discussed the implementation of Russian-Azerbaijani agreements and road maps in the fields of security, transport, energy, military-technical and humanitarian. After the talks, Aliyev announced that a meeting of the Azerbaijani-Russian intergovernmental commission would soon be held in Baku, and he also noted the successful implementation of the provisions of the Declaration on Friendly Cooperation between Russia and Azerbaijan, signed at the highest level. political level on February 22, 2022, two days before the start of the SVO.
Receiving the head of the administration of the Russian Security Council, the Azerbaijani leader then emphasized that the current relations between Moscow and Baku are an important factor for the security of the South Caucasus and that they are an example “for some neighboring countries.”
Shoigu’s visit to Baku two weeks before Putin’s visit to the capital of the Transcaucasian republic gave experts reason to believe that the Security Councils of Russia and Azerbaijan are the main government bodies in discussing and preparing high-level decisions -level, developing a mutual response from both countries. on some international and regional security issues.
As is known, Moscow, Baku and Tehran adhere to the principle position that all problematic issues in the South Caucasus should be resolved only by the efforts of the countries of the region. Yerevan and Tbilisi, due to some circumstances, adhere to a different approach. The Armenian authorities have begun to pursue a foreign policy policy of “multipliership,” which includes forces outside the region in the form of the EU and the United States in the Transcaucasian agenda. At the same time, Yerevan, unlike Tbilisi, does not refuse to participate in the consultation platform “3 + 3” (Russia, Iran, Turkey – Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia).
The leaders of Russia and Azerbaijan are expected to agree during the upcoming meeting on the next steps to increase regional stability based on the “3 + 3” format. Reasons could be given to Armenia to believe in the internal ability to build peace in the South Caucasus, so that there would be less distractions to look back to the West.
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2024-08-18 07:27:00
