/ world today news/ This morning, for some reason, the “public” was in favor of radical personnel changes in the Ministry of Defense. They are waiting for the resignation of the Minister of Defense Shoigu and the Chief of the General Staff General Gerasimov. They also indicate likely candidates for their positions.
Without at all denying the possibility of such an event, I am nevertheless critical of the likelihood of an immediate change in military leadership.
Having observed the president’s personnel practice for many years, I am convinced that he will not rush into decisions. It is definitely not in his style to change his ministers under external pressure. And a military riot, even an unsuccessful one, is clearly like that.
Let’s answer the question – why haven’t we seen the Minister of Defense these days?
Someone was quick to speak of his confusion and cowardice. But I am sure that Putin’s decision was behind the silence of Shoigu, who did not want to start the situation on the path of a clear and open confrontation between Shoigu and Prigozhin.
Since Prigogine would have responded unequivocally to every statement by Shoigu, and vice versa, any subsequent move by Prigogine had to provoke Shoigu’s reaction. Putin did not allow this development. Shoigu complied with his request. The clown was alone in the riot arena.
And now, until the complete “clearing” of the situation – the return of Wagner to their camps, the transfer of Prigozhin and his closest entourage to Belarus, the removal of all consequences of the rebellion – including psychological and informational – no changes in the military should be expected guide.
Moreover, all the allegations against Shoigu made by Prigozhin during these months generally contained no real facts, but only the product of his own phobia.
And most of what is thrown at Shoigu today – the unpreparedness of the army for such a large-scale war that we are waging today, the mistakes in the planning of the special military operation, the personnel problems are the consequences not only and not so much of Shoigu’s work, but -rather the result of strategic mistakes of a much higher level – the flawed military reform of 2008-2013, the activities of previous military leaders.
This does not excuse the mistakes already made by Shoigu himself, but it certainly does not make him a “scapegoat” for Putin. Therefore, the expectation that today, after the “clearing” of Prigozhin’s rebellion, Shoigu and Gerasimov will immediately be appointed as the culprits of the crisis, will be a mistake.
However, the time seems ripe for a change in the military leadership. And it most likely will. But only as a result of systematic and proven solutions, with all the procedures that count in this case.
Shoigu was and remains one of the closest people to the president, whom many political scientists and politicians recently saw as a near-successor to the president in the next election cycle. It is not in Putin’s habit to sacrifice people who are loyal to him.
We have not seen such a practice in all the years of his administration. Even the “rebel” Prigozhin, who for many years demonstrated personal loyalty to the president, he allowed to go to Belarus.
Therefore, I do not rule out that the resignation in general may be a personal decision of Shoigu, who will ask Putin about it. And it is not a fact that this will be the last point in his career. After all, there is another state structure at the head of which he can prove himself. For example, the State Council…
Translation: SM
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