What will Vladimir Putin‘s next steps be, the planet wonders after a week of escalation in Ukraine. During it, the Russian president lowered the conditions for a Russian nuclear strike, the US and the UK crossed (yet another) Moscow “red line” allowing Kiev to launch Western missiles into Russian territory, and Russia hit the Ukrainian city of Dnipro with a new type of ballistic missile capable of carrying nuclear warheads.
Subsequently, in his speech, President Putin warned Western countries of retaliation, in the event that Russian military facilities are hit with their weapons. What is going to happen? Will he choose further escalation, with uncontrollable consequences?
“I estimate that the Russian Federation will not escalate. Nor will it launch a missile attack against France or the United Kingdom,” Antonis Kamaras, ELIAMEP research associate specializing in Defense issues, answers Vima. At the same time, he sees a consolidation of the current situation and an end to hostilities through the divided model of Cyprus or North and South Korea.
Why did the Russian president, Mr. Kamara, choose to respond with the Oresnik ballistic missile to the US ATACMS and British Storm Shadow missile attacks?
“Obviously, it is extremely useful to the Russian president that Russia is a nuclear power. Hence the aid that Ukraine receives so far is very cautious. A hypersonic ballistic missile is a bargaining chip for him.”
How do you interpret Putin’s speech? Planning to scale up?
“Hybrid attacks by the Russian military intelligence service (GRU) are already taking place in Europe at the moment, which pose the risk of loss of people and animals. And while we must take for granted that the relevant, particularly intense, activity of the agency will be escalated, I do not believe that the Russian Federation will escalate the tension in the military field and launch a missile attack against France or the United Kingdom. The new US president wants, according to his statement, to agree with Putin to end the war. Therefore, it is not in the interest of the Russian president to “burn” this way out”.
Will the escalation by the Biden administration create a fait accompli in the face of Trump taking office?
“No. A world war is already raging. When suddenly North Korea sends personnel and equipment and Ukraine has support from other countries then, indeed, we are talking about a war conflict worldwide, which has mobilized resources, forces and means intercontinentally from North America to Asia. On the other hand, it is known that once the current situation is consolidated, we are now headed to the North and South Korea or Cyprus model of division. Putin keeps 20% of the Ukrainian territories he has conquered, a situation is stabilized and hostilities stop. This is the deal on the table. It will be a question whether Putin really believes that he can advance in Kiev, in Kharkiv… Because the other side is not willing to suffer such a defeat. She is willing to agree with him based on the existing balances. He will not tolerate the total defeat of Ukraine.”
Will there be complications if the ‘division model’ is promoted?
“Nothing will happen. So far, Russia has shown Europe and the world how it perceives its security. On the other hand, however, the EU has also proven that if 80% of Ukraine is free, sovereign, tomorrow it can join the European Union and prosper.”
How will Ukraine’s accession to NATO develop?
“My personal judgment is that it won’t happen. Putin has achieved this. Germany does not seem to consent to the accession either. Prospectively, the strategy in the next 5-10 years will be the re-normalization of Euro-Russian relations and the lifting of the embargo. No one in Europe wants to turn their back on Russia forever – that would mean Ukraine joining NATO. However, Ukraine can become a member of the EU.”
#Putin #escalate #attacks #Ukraine #divided
Considering Dr. Petrova’s expertise on Russian foreign policy and Dr. Davies’s understanding of international conflict resolution, how might their perspectives differ regarding the potential success of a negotiated settlement, particularly in light of recent escalations and Putin’s rhetoric?
## World Today News: Interview – Ukraine: Escalation or Division?
**Introduction:**
Welcome to World Today News. Today we’re joined by two esteemed experts to discuss the escalating tension in Ukraine and the potential path forward.
With the recent developments, including Russia’s use of a new hypersonic missile and President Putin’s warnings to the West, the global community is holding its breath. Will there be further escalation, or is a negotiated settlement within reach? Our guests today will shed light on these critical questions and explore the potential implications for Ukraine, Russia, and the world.
**Guests:**
* **Dr. Elena Petrova:** Internationally recognized expert on Russian foreign policy and security, author of “The Putin Paradox: Power, Politics, and the Shadow of the Tsar.”
* **Dr. Anthony Davies:** Leading expert in international conflict resolution and post-Cold War European politics, Professor at the School of International Relations, University of London.
**Section 1 – The Escalation Dilemma:**
**Host:** Antonis Kamaras suggests that Russia is unlikely to escalate militarily further. Dr. Petrova, do you agree with this assessment, given the recent deployment of the Oresnik missile and Putin’s strong rhetoric? What are the limits of Russian military escalation, and what factors might push Putin towards further aggression?
**Dr. Petrova:** (Response)
**Host:** Dr. Davies, what is your take on the likelihood of a wider conflict? How concerned should we be about the potential for Russia to target NATO members directly in response to Ukraine receiving Western weapons?
**Dr. Davies:** (Response)
**Section 2: The “Division Model” vs. a Negotiated Settlement:**
**Host:** Antonio Kamaras proposes a “division model” for Ukraine, similar to Cyprus or North-South Korea. Is this a realistic solution, and what are its potential implications for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity? Dr. Petrova, what are the chances of success for this model?
**Dr. Petrova:** (Response)
**Host:** Dr. Davies, is the “division model” a palatable solution for Ukraine? What are the potential long-term consequences of such a settlement? What alternatives to this model exist, and how likely are they to succeed?
**Dr. Davies:** (Response)
**Section 3: The Role of the International Community & Ukraine’s Future:**
**Host:** Dr. Petrova, how crucial is Western support in deterring further Russian aggression? What are the possible consequences for the international order if Russia successfully achieves its goals in Ukraine?
**Dr. Petrova:** (Response)
**Host:** Dr. Davies, what role can the European Union play in mediating a solution to the conflict? Is Ukraine likely to become a member of either NATO or the EU in the near future? How can the international community best support Ukraine’s long-term stability and prosperity?
**Dr. Davies:** (Response)
**Conclusion:**
**Host:** Thank you both for your insightful perspectives on this critical issue. The situation in Ukraine remains precarious, and the coming months will be crucial in determining the future of the region.
We encourage our viewers to stay informed about developments and to engage in thoughtful discussions about the challenges and opportunities facing Ukraine and the world.
