Analysts say the Russian dictator is trying to use any ceasefires and dialogue boxes to give his military time to recover, thus robbing Ukraine of the initiative.
“However, a ceasefire achieved quickly enough for Russian troops to rest and rearm this winter is highly unlikely,” the ISW said.
Experts have stressed that it takes time to negotiate a long-term ceasefire across the theater of operations, and Russia and Ukraine are far apart for any such deal.
“Putin is more likely fueling the ceasefire talks primarily as part of an information operation aimed at deepening the divide between Ukraine and its supporters, portraying Kiev as reluctant to talk,” the Institute for the study of war.
ISW Key Points:
- Putin’s position in the Russian media space continues to fluctuate between support for the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and support for the nationalist and pro-military millblogger community.
- An independent open source investigation by the BBC’s Russian Service and the independent Russian publication Mediazona found that members of the Russian national republics are disproportionately sent to Ukraine compared to ethnically Russian regions, yet ethnic Russians die in proportion to their representation in the population of the Russian Federation.
- Russian officials have tightened existing legislation to crack down on domestic dissent.
- Senior US officials have said Russia is providing an unprecedented level of military and technical support to Iran in exchange for Iranian-made weapon systems.
- Russian troops established defensive lines near Svatovoe, while Ukrainian troops launched ground offensives near Kremennaya.
- Russian troops continued ground attacks near Bakhmut and Avdiivka.
- It is possible that Russian troops took up positions on an island west of Kherson in the Dnieper River.
- The campaign by Ukrainian forces to blockade Russian military assets and logistics centers in southern Ukraine has likely worsened Russian forces, their logistics lines and RF morale in general.
- Putin doubled down on claims that Russia would not conduct a second wave of mobilization amid continued concern of Russian society.
- The occupiers continued to tighten physical, legal and social control over the occupied territories.
