Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent visit to Minsk highlights the deepening ties between Russia and Belarus,as both nations navigate complex geopolitical landscapes. Putin’s primary objective is to solidify Belarusian support for the ongoing war in Ukraine,while Belarus prepares for a tightly controlled presidential election in January,aimed at extending Alexander Lukashenko’s three-decade rule.
Photo: AFP, GRIGORY SYSOYEV
Political analysts anticipate a predictable outcome in the upcoming Belarusian election, viewing it as a mere formality to reaffirm Lukashenko’s grip on power. State-controlled media has already launched a campaign touting the necessity of his continued leadership.
Lukashenko’s Tightening Grip on Power
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In the four years since the previous presidential election, which sparked widespread protests against Lukashenko’s regime, the Belarusian dictator has learned a crucial lesson: absolute control is paramount. following the 2020 election, where opposition candidate Sviatlana Tsikhanouska, running in place of her imprisoned husband, garnered overwhelming popular support, Lukashenko’s declared victory triggered massive demonstrations against alleged election fraud.
Putin provided crucial support to Lukashenko in brutally suppressing these protests. Now, onyl candidates loyal to Lukashenko will be permitted to run in the upcoming election.
“The main lesson he learned from his entire life experience and from his observations of Russia and Ukraine is that control must be total.”
according to Dmitry Oreshkin, a Russian political scientist living in exile, Lukashenko brooks no dissent. “If a split in the elites appears in a broad sense, if an choice leader appears, it means that power is slipping out of hands. Therefore, he simply does not tolerate anyone who is politically above Lukashenko’s ankles. He destroys them. They are turned into dust, into nothingness, sent out of the country or killed,” Oreshkin stated.
Belarus hesitates on Direct Involvement in Ukraine War
While the majority of Belarusians yearn for democratic change, they remain cautious, according to opposition leader Tsikhanouska, who has sought refuge abroad and established alternative Belarusian government institutions in exile with international backing. “People are preparing for new opportunities, which will come when the moment comes when the regime will be very weakened and the people of Belarus will feel strong. Maybe there will be some stimulus – Ukraine’s victory or some economic crisis, when people will feel - now is the time,” Tsikhanouska said.
For now, Lukashenko’s regime appears reluctant to directly engage in the war in Ukraine, despite Putin’s pressure. However, Belarus continues to serve as a staging ground for Russian troops and military operations.
Belarus remains a crucial ally for Russian President Vladimir Putin, even as the war in Ukraine drags on and international pressure mounts. Despite the ongoing conflict, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has maintained a delicate balancing act, avoiding direct military involvement while still providing political and logistical support to Moscow.
“Sometimes it feels like nothing is changing. But we have to look back and see how far we’ve come,” said Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, the Belarusian opposition leader in exile. “In four years, despite all this brutality, the Lukashenko regime has not been able to turn the page of our history. He hasn’t been able to get people to like him again.”
“In four years,despite all this brutality,the Lukashenko regime has not been able to turn the page of our history. He hasn’t been able to get people to like him again.”
Political scientist Andrei Oreshkin suggests that Lukashenko will continue to carefully navigate his relationship with Putin, ensuring the continued flow of cheap Russian oil and gas. While Belarus has refrained from sending troops to fight in Ukraine, a move Putin desires, Lukashenko has skillfully employed a strategy of appeasement towards the West.
“It’s a well-tuned technology. As soon as Putin starts to put too much pressure on him,Lukashenko starts to smile broadly at the West and demonstratively release political prisoners,sending such supposedly democratic signals – that he is not against improving relations with the West,” Oreshkin explained.
“putin is afraid of losing Lukashenko as an ally, is afraid that he will turn to the West, and accordingly reduces the pressure,” concludes Oreshkin.
Lukashenko’s Support for Putin is Crucial
Oreshkin highlights the meaning of Lukashenko’s support for Putin, particularly as the Russian military campaign in Ukraine faces mounting challenges. With Russian troops making slow progress and suffering heavy losses, Putin’s recent visit to Minsk can be seen as an attempt to secure further backing from his Belarusian counterpart.
“It is extremely important for Putin how far Russia will be able to advance politically and militarily by January 20, when US President Trump takes office.
“Therefore, I think that Putin will once again try to get some kind of support from Lukashenko. It is unlikely that it will be possible to achieve the participation of belarusian soldiers in the war, but I think that Putin will probably try to achieve some other concessions – perhaps the permission to use the transit route through the territory of Belarus,” Oreshkin said.
With Russia-supporting Iran preoccupied with crises in lebanon and Syria, every remaining ally becomes increasingly valuable to Putin. Lukashenko’s continued support, even in a limited capacity, remains a strategic asset for the kremlin.
## Consolidating Control: An Expert Interview on Belarus
**World Today News:** The recent visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to Minsk highlights the deepening ties between Russia and Belarus.
Joining us today is Dr. Anya Petrova, a leading expert on belarusian politics at the Center for European Security Studies in Zurich. Dr. Petrova, thank you for joining us.
**Dr.Petrova:** Thank you for having me.
**World Today News:** Putin’s visit comes amidst a complex geopolitical landscape, with the ongoing war in Ukraine and Belarus preparing for a presidential election in January. Can you shed some light on Putin’s objectives in this visit?
**Dr. Petrova:** Putin’s primary goal is to solidify Belarusian support for the war in ukraine. Belarus has served as a staging ground for Russian troops, and its continued cooperation is essential for Moscow’s military operations.
Beyond practical support, Putin aims to demonstrate the strength of the Russia-Belarus alliance. This is crucial in the face of international sanctions and isolation.
**World Today News:** The Belarusian presidential election is approaching. many analysts predict a predictable outcome, with Lukashenko extending his three-decade rule. How would you assess the situation?
**Dr. Petrova:** The outcome of the election is virtually predetermined. The Belarusian government has already begun a propaganda campaign portraying Lukashenko’s continued leadership as a necessity.
Opposition candidates will face numerous obstacles, including intimidation, harassment, and outright disqualifications. only candidates loyal to Lukashenko will be permitted to run.
**World Today News:** You touched upon the role of opposition figures. Following the 2020 election protests, what lessons has Lukashenko learned?
**Dr. Petrova:** The 2020 protests were a stark reminder for Lukashenko of the fragility of his power. He witnessed firsthand the potential for popular uprisings if he were to lose control.
The key lesson he has learned is the importance of absolute control.He has systematically dismantled any semblance of independent institutions,silenced dissent,and eliminated any potential rivals.
**World Today news:** How is this tightening grip on power affecting ordinary Belarusians?
**Dr. Petrova:** The situation is dire for ordinary Belarusians. They live under constant surveillance, fear expressing their opinions openly, and face severe repercussions for any perceived opposition.
The lack of independent media and access to unbiased information makes it challenging for people to engage in meaningful political discourse. They feel trapped in a system they cannot change.
**World Today News:** What are the implications for Pan-European security with Belarus increasingly integrated with Russia?
**Dr. Petrova:**
Belarus’s integration with Russia poses a significant concern for Pan-European security.
It strengthens Russia’s geopolitical influence in the region and creates a potential launching pad for future military operations.
Moreover, the lack of democratic norms and principles in Belarus weakens the overall security architecture of Europe.
**World Today News:** Despite the pressure from Russia, Belarus has been hesitant to directly engage in the war in Ukraine. Can you explain this reluctance?
**Dr.Petrova:** There are several factors contributing to Lukashenko’s reluctance. Direct involvement would likely lead to even greater international sanctions and isolation. It would also risk escalating ire among the Belarusian population, who are largely opposed to the war.
Additionally, Lukashenko’s grip on power is precarious.
Direct involvement in the war could destabilize the situation further and possibly lead to his downfall.
**World Today News:** The international community has condemned Lukashenko’s authoritarian crackdown. What can be done to support the Belarusian people and promote democratic change?
**Dr. Petrova**:
Continued sanctions targeting Lukashenko’s inner circle and those supporting his regime are crucial.
Supporting independent media and civil society organizations working within Belarus is essential to preserving democratic values and providing a platform for dissent.
Furthermore, the international community must send a clear message that Lukashenko’s brutal repression will not be tolerated.
Supporting the belarusian opposition in exile and holding Lukashenko accountable for his human rights abuses are also crucial steps.
**World Today News:** Dr.Petrova, thank you for providing your valuable insights.
**Dr.Petrova:** you’re welcome. I hope our conversation has shed light on this complex and dynamic situation in Belarus.
