Former KGB agent Vladimir Putin has been pressured to strengthen his authoritarian grip on Russia. A small spark can ignite an explosion, according to an expert.
In 2021, President Putin has fought hybrid wars on several fronts. Internally in Russia, he has been challenged by a heroic figure in Alexei Navalny, poor pandemic management and a Russian wave of protests.
– The President of Russia takes the train. Photo: SPUTNIK / NTB
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The development of an authoritarian regime under Putin has accelerated over the past year, according to Nupi researcher Helge Blakkisrud and senior adviser to the Norwegian Helsinki Committee Inna Sangadzhieva.
It has also contributed to Russia increasing tensions along the border with Ukraine, they explain.
– Putin is pushed into a corner. But it is important to point out that it is not we, the West and NATO, who have pushed him there. No, it is the nature and structure of the regime that was not reformed in the 1990s. We now see that it collapses because society wakes up, Sangadzhieva tells NTB.
Nupi researcher Blakkisrud, on the other hand, believes that Putin is stronger as an authoritarian leader at home in Russia than for a long time.
– Internally he is strong, there are no challengers to power as of today. He has implemented a constitutional amendment which means that he is no longer bound by any immediate time limit, Blakkisrud says to NTB.
Withdraws forces
At Christmas, Putin reiterated the demand that the West must promise that NATO will not enter Ukraine, but also warned that Russian forces near the border will be reduced by 10,000.
Blakkisrud believes Putin’s demands are impossible to accept in the West.
“Setting an absolute limit for who can become NATO members is irrelevant, and the Russian side also knows that,” says the Nupi researcher.
The constitutional change means that Putin can in theory sit until 2036. Blakkisrud believes it has neutralized all challengers who are within the power structure. At the same time, it and other legislative changes that weaken democracy have cut off the opposition.
– An authoritarian regime
– All approaches to a power struggle have now been neutralized. No one dares to challenge him or anyone in the circle around Putin, says Blakkisrud.
– Putin is vacationing on the taiga in Siberia. Photo: SPUTNIK / NTB
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The Nupi researcher says that Putin’s grips at home mean that his grip on power is now more than stable. The opposition is suffocated.
If you ask Putin, he will say that this is a democracy, elections are being held and there are more candidates at all levels, from local elections to governors. Also in the presidential election there are several candidates. He wants to believe that it is a system where the people can have their say and participate in the election process, says Blakkisrud.
For a while, there was talk of a hybrid regime, a controlled democracy. But today it is an authoritarian regime, which strikes hard at all forms of opposition, he states.
Blakkisrud says that there was speculation as to whether this development would slow down after the parliamentary elections this autumn, but that it does not look like that.
Agent Putin
Putin does not rule the country as a politician, but as a KGB agent, Sangadzhieva believes. Then all are enemies. Anyone who challenges the status quo must be oppressed. But old grips from the KGB’s toolbox do not work as well now as they did in Soviet times.
The threat of war and the fact that Russia is threatened by external powers does not bite the people as well. The attempt to change the legislation and even the constitution meets with opposition.
– The situation on the ground now is quite bad. It is not known how long this type of regime lasts. It’s getting significantly worse now. Putin is pushed into a corner, and then you know you can expect anything, says Sangadzhieva.
– The Soviet Union was dissolved in December 1991. Photo: MIKE FISHER / AFP / NTB
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She points out that the renewal in the 90s with glasnost and perestroika – openness and restructuring – is now being broken down. Attempts are being made to shut down the human rights organization Memorial with the law in hand, activists, politicians and journalists are imprisoned and persecuted.
– Can not scare everyone
Russia is moving in the direction of Belarus, known as Europe’s last dictatorship, says Sangadzhieva.
– I really think that Russia is too big for the same thing to happen there. You can not scare everyone. Not everyone will give up. We have seen Navalny as an example. There will be some brave ones who stand up. They need our support, she says.
But Russian opposition figures are afraid, Sangadzhieva said.
– Of course they are. No one wants to end up in solitary confinement, and most are not as brave as Navalny, although he is a great example to many, she says.
– Putin plays ice hockey with Alexander Lukashenko. Photo: Reuters / NTB
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The situation can be dangerous, Putin sees that the iron grip is missing, warns the senior adviser.
– How long this will last, I do not know. But in the process of getting there, anything can happen. A small spark can create an explosion. That is why it is important to follow, says Sangadzhieva.
Can be strangled
She points out that the KGB’s successor, the security agency FSB, is everywhere. In addition, there are a number of different security structures in Russia, which are currently loyal to Putin as long as they get enough money.
– We now see in this year’s budget that Russia is increasing the budget significantly for precisely those groups. That is the wall Putin is building, she says.
Sangadzhieva points out that history has shown that other authoritarian regimes have gone through the same thing.
– On August 19, 1991, a number of politicians and officers who did not support Gorbachev’s democratic reforms tried to oust the last leader of the Soviet Union. Photo: DIMA TANIN / NTB
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– We should really go back in history and see what stopped this type of authoritarian regime. The weakness is money. That’s what Navalny has been saying all along. As long as there are some in the West who are willing to feed the system, it will continue, she says.
Challenged on several sides
The build-up of forces on the border with Ukraine must be seen as an attempt by Putin to retain power in his home country, she believes.
He is challenged both by dissatisfaction and protests that are growing bigger than before, with young participants who have organized themselves, and by the corona handling. The Russians see that Putin’s regime is unable to take care of them, Sangadzhieva points out.
– Navalny stands out as an important symbol, a leader who is fearless and shows that it is possible to fight and build a network. It is something Putin is terrified of, that people will find each other, communicate and organize themselves. In the security structures he comes from, that is exactly what they are going to work towards. The KGB was oppressive, and that is his starting point, she says.
– That is the challenge for the country. A KGB agent who is not really a politician rules. As he understands the world, it is about internal and external enemies and a complete lack of trust in most people.
Fact about Vladimir Putin
* Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin was born in Leningrad, now St. Petersburg, on October 7, 1952.
* Former KGB agent. In 1998, he became head of the Russian security service FSB.
* In 1999, he was appointed Prime Minister by President Boris Yeltsin. When Yeltsin unexpectedly resigned on December 31, 1999, Putin became acting president.
* Was formally elected to the post in March 2000 and re-elected for a new four-year term in March 2004.
* In May 2008, he became Prime Minister under President Dmitry Medvedev. Russian constitution states that presidents can not sit for more than two consecutive terms.
* In March 2012, he was re-elected president for six new years.
* On March 18, 2018, he was re-elected for a new six-year term with almost 77 percent of the vote.
* On July 1, 2020, a referendum was held on changes to the Russian constitution that could allow Putin to remain in power until 2036. The changes were voted on despite large demonstrations.
* Under Putin’s leadership, Russia has experienced democratic decline, according to several international organizations.
(Sources: NTB, AFP)
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(©NTB)
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