Russian President Putin appears to be preparing his threat with nuclear weapons a nuclear train in Ukraine and to prepare a test with the Belgorod nuclear submarine. “The White House and the CIA take the threat seriously. We have to be careful with arms supplies to Ukraine, because we are walking on a tightrope, “says Tom Sauer (U Antwerp) professor of international politics and expert on nuclear weapons.
A Russian freight train was set in motion last Sunday. The train is part of the 12th Directorate Chief of the Russian Defense Ministry. That department is responsible for the custody, technical maintenance, transportation, delivery and disposal of the Russian nuclear arsenal, as well as testing the nuclear cargoes.
6,666 times Hiroshima
Additionally, sources tell the Times that NATO has sent an intelligence report to its members and allies warning them of a Russian test of the Belgorod torpedo submarine. That test would take place in the Russian-controlled Black Sea. The Belgorod would be equipped with six Poseidon missiles, each worth 100 million tons of TNT equivalent. The atomic bomb dropped by the United States on Hiroshima had a force of 15,000 tons of TNT equivalent. This makes a Poseidon rocket 6,666 times the power of Hiroshima’s.
“As far as I know, those torpedoes aren’t operational yet,” Sauer said. “That train seems more dangerous to me. Russia has mobile nuclear missile systems on trains and if Putin moves them it could indicate that he is up to something. ”Sauer takes the Russian nuclear threat seriously.
Citation
With the use of a nuclear weapon, Putin would break a taboo that has lasted for 75 years. But the risk was never zero. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, the risk has increased and in recent weeks the danger has grown even greater
“The general threat has increased, although I don’t think Putin will use nuclear weapons. In doing so, he would break a taboo that has lasted for 75 years. But the risk has never been zero, since the start of the war in Ukraine the risk has increased and in recent weeks the danger has become even greater. We shouldn’t dismiss Putin’s threat as a bluff. He has said things in the past that we thought were bluffing, but he did it anyway. Think of the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the invasion of Ukraine in February of this year. So we have to be careful. “
Roadmap
According to Sauer, the train and torpedo submarine are signals from Putin to reinforce his threat. “He is gradually increasing the threat of nuclear weapons until the West changes its policy,” Sauer said. “The use of nuclear weapons is not Putin’s ultimate goal, but he will do everything possible to prevent the West from supplying heavy weapons to Ukraine. Those arms deliveries are preventing him from making progress on the ground, and that’s what it is all about. The man is furious, he will not stand still “.
Sauer outlines what steps Putin could still take. “He has already raised the hybrid war, with the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipeline. The next step could be for him to conduct an underground nuclear test, which dates back to the 1980s. So he could conduct a surface test, with a mushroom cloud that would create fear and lead the West to think about politics. If it still doesn’t work, he could deploy a tactical nuclear weapon, first on uninhabited areas, then on a city in Ukraine. “
Citation
With 5,977 nuclear warheads, Russia has the largest nuclear arsenal in the world. Of these, 1,588 are currently ready for use. 2,889 are in reserve and 1,500 out of service, but not yet decommissioned. The United States comes close enough with 5,428 nuclear warheads
Such a tactical nuclear weapon is intended for use on the battlefield. Tactical or non-strategic nuclear weapons are lighter and smaller than strategic nuclear weapons. “They are comparable to the Hiroshima bomb, which killed 140,000 in one shot,” Sauer said. (read more under the infographic)
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And Putin has no shortage of nuclear weapons. With 5,977 nuclear warheads, Russia has the largest nuclear arsenal in the world. Of these 5,977 warheads, 1,588 are currently immediately deployable. 2,889 are in reserve and 1,500 are not deployable but not yet decommissioned. The United States comes close enough with 5,428 nuclear warheads. So the retaliation for a possible Russian nuclear attack could be massive.
Victims on their own territory
But Russia takes more risks if it pushes the nuclear button. The West could use it to impose sanctions on China, India and other countries that still buy Russian oil and gas. Furthermore, radiation from its own nuclear weapon could penetrate Russian territory and cause casualties.
Citation
A tactical nuclear strike against Ukraine would be on the Hiroshima order, affecting all of Europe and Russia. Although such consequences would be limited to the ban on drinking milk due to the risk of radiation
Sauer believes Putin will take all this calmly. “It is already the world’s pariah, and if the West imposes sanctions on China and India, the Western economy will collapse. As for radiation on Russian territory after a nuclear weapon in Ukraine: the damage to one’s population depends on the place where the explosion occurs and the direction of the wind. It is true that even with a tactical nuclear weapon the consequences for the entire continent would be disastrous. Such an attack on Ukraine would still be on Hiroshima’s order, affecting all of Europe and Russia. Even if these consequences would be relatively limited to not being able to drink milk due to the risk of radiation ”.
Anyone who believes Putin is bluffing his nuclear threats should think again. Sauer: “If the CIA and the White House take the threat seriously, we should too. We need a peace narrative and we need to be more careful, including when it comes to supplying heavy weapons to Ukraine. The West is walking a tightrope. A fall would be catastrophic ”.
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