Putin held a meeting on February 1 to discuss the restoration of residential infrastructure in the occupied Crimea, Belgorod, Bryansk and Kursk regions after shelling. He stated that the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation should stop the shelling.
Putin’s focus on the danger of Ukrainian shelling of the border areas likely serves two purposes. He is promoting an information operation aimed at presenting the war in Ukraine as an existential threat to Russian citizens in order to rally domestic support for a protracted war.
Putin could also set the stage for an escalation of cross-border raids to divert and disperse Ukrainian forces away from critical offensive areas, trapping them in the northeastern border areas.
“ISW continues to believe that a Russian invasion from Belarus is highly unlikely, and the ongoing information operation to pin Ukrainian troops to the Belarusian border appears to be faltering as Ukrainian officials increasingly view the threat of invasion as unlikely,” experts say.
In their opinion, the threat of cross-border raids from the Belgorod, Bryansk and Kursk regions to the north and northeast of Ukraine is probably an attempt to force Ukraine to transfer limited units to these areas to protect against such attacks, thereby dispersing Ukrainian troops to a certain limit in front of the Russian offensive operation in the coming months.
Key findings from ISW analysts
- Ukrainian officials continue to warn of Russia’s plans to launch a decisive offensive in the Donbas in February or March.
- Russian troops continued ground attacks northeast and southwest of Bakhmut.
- Russian troops continued limited ground attacks to regain lost ground on the Svatovo-Kremennaya line on 1 February.
- Russian forces continue unsuccessful operations to destroy islands in the Dnieper Delta in the Kherson region in an attempt to prevent Ukrainian forces from penetrating the islands.
- Russian officials are planning a moratorium on the public procurement law to ease spending procedures in the face of increasingly costly military action.
- Wagner’s efforts to recruit prisoners may have slowed down.
- Crimean partisans could have committed sabotage using an improvised explosive device on January 30th.
