There is still a danger of an armed conflict between Russia and NATO, and the best way to prevent that is to ensure that Ukraine wins the war, says the researcher.
Less than 20 minutes ago
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Professor Katarzyna Zysk at the Department of Defense Studies says she agrees with Russian defector Boris Bondarev’s analysis that the West must be prepared for a military conflict with Vladimir Putin’s Russia.
She warns against pushing Ukraine to the negotiating table and says that it could be perceived as a weakness in the European defense wall, and increase the risk of an escalation.
– I agree that the future of Europe – and NATO – will be decided today in Ukraine. The course and conclusion of the conflict will be of fundamental importance, says Zysk to NTB.
– Putin has been and continues to be involved in this conflict for the long term. The war started in 2014, but his ambitious military and political goals, including rewriting the international order in Europe, of which the control over Ukraine is a part, have existed for a long time, says Zysk.
–Warned the West
The defector Bondarev, who until May was one of Russia’s top officials at the UN in Geneva, warned Europe at the weekend and said that Western leaders must stress that NATO is ready to take on a conflict with Russia.
– It is also true that the West must be prepared for the threat of an armed confrontation with Putin’s Russia. However, this threat has been there since the start of the invasion. Both sides have chosen to operate in a way that reduces an escalation of the conflict from a local to a regional level, says Zysk.
She points out that both Russia and the West use their nuclear weapons for nuclear deterrence. Russia uses it, among other things, to limit Western interference in the conflict and to limit Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory, she says.
– The West, for its part, has deterred Russia from responding to the increasing military support for Ukraine, including preventing Russia from attacking, for example, the logistical hubs for lethal weapons systems in Poland that are sent on to Ukraine, says Zysk.
–Western statements may increase the danger
In his chronicle, Bondarev directed criticism at European leaders who have advocated that Putin must not lose face in negotiations.
– It is true that if Putin sees an opportunity to scare Europe to the negotiating table on his terms, which means undermining central values which are the very foundation on which our European order is built, then he will do it, says Zysk.
She says that Russia has used nuclear threats in an attempt to divide the West, and that it has given arguments to political forces in Europe who want to limit support for Ukraine.
– The problem with this way of thinking, however, is that given Putin’s expansive ambitions, he is not going to stop the offensive in Ukraine if he has been given the opportunity and permission to continue. Ergo, Russia must be stopped, says Zysk.
– The shortest way to end the conflict is thus to support Ukraine so that we can get a deadlocked situation which increases the chance that Putin will be pressured into negotiations. This must be combined with as tight sanctions as possible, she says.
She says that a possible escalation from the Russian side will not take place on the assumption that NATO and the US will not be able to respond, but on the assumption that Russia has a greater interest in the conflict than the West.
–– Putin’s forces must lose
– Perceptions of the Western willingness to resist – politically as well as militarily – are therefore of critical importance, says Zysk.
– The danger of escalation will increase if Putin sees that the West’s will to defend itself – and its values - is weak, says Zysk.
The professor says that she agrees with Bondarev that statements such as that Ukraine must be pressured into negotiations and that Putin must not lose face can create the impression of division and weakness in the West.
– It could give Putin incentives to push harder, politically and militarily, and even escalate, says Zysk.
– Here I agree with Bondarev that the only effective way to avoid further escalation and direct clashes is to ensure that Putin’s forces lose in Ukraine, she says.
–Russia is still superior
Zysk points out that Russia is still militarily superior to Ukraine.
– But the outcome of the war also depends on a number of other factors in addition to the quantitative one, she says.
– Militarily speaking, this conflict can last a long time. Putin wants, but does not need, to take over as much of Ukraine as possible. But he can control the occupied parts of the country for a long time, and increase and decrease the pressure – military and political – against Ukraine for a long time to undermine and wear the country out over a long period of time, says Zysk.
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