Putin may become hostage to his threat policy / Article

Andris Sprūds, Director of the Latvian Institute of Foreign Policy, recalls that a similar concentration of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border was observed as early as spring. Russia announced shortly afterwards that it had achieved its goals and withdrew troops to previous positions.

“Putin can play this game once or a second time, but he can hardly repeat it every six months, because at some point the tactics will be exhausted. And at that point, Putin would be held hostage to this policy, because he would have to act.

It would be difficult for him to abandon this policy without losing his face, ”concludes Sprūds. “This is a problem for Putin, for Ukraine and for the stability of the whole region.”

Spruce explains that the main motive of Putin’s doctrine is to show himself as a strong leader at the regional and global levels. It is important for Putin that his presidency continues beyond 2024, when his current term expires.

One of Putin’s goals is to overturn the decision made at the 2008 NATO summit in Bucharest that Ukraine and Georgia will one day become members of NATO. The Alliance’s leadership emphasizes that this is only a matter for NATO and these countries, about which Russia will have no say. However, Moscow is demanding assurances that NATO’s expansion to the east will not continue.

Žaneta Ozoliņa, Chairwoman of the Board of the Latvian Transatlantic Organization (LATO), admits that NATO enlargement is an issue on which it will be very difficult to find a compromise.

“Putin has been repeating for a long time, especially after 2014, that further enlargement of NATO would be a” red line “, after which Russia would have the right to respond according to its wishes, including by military means,” Ozolina points out.

The spokesman says Russia is currently watching the US response to Russia’s maneuvers near the Ukrainian border. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken at a meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Riga this week expressed clear support for Ukraine and called on Russia to refrain from aggressive action. Ozolina points out that US President Joe Biden has also expressed great support for Ukraine since the first days of his presidency.

Russia’s threat to Ukraine and the migrant crisis caused by the Belarussian regime have also made the Baltic States and Poland think more about their security. The support of the United States is very important in this regard.

“We say security, we think NATO; “We say NATO, we think the United States first,” concludes Sprūds.

“The fact that Latvia is a member of NATO is also largely the result of the US foreign and security policy,” Ozolina recalls.

During his visit to Riga, Blinken reaffirmed that the US defense presence and political support would continue; The new US administration will continue to support the Baltic States, which has remained unchanged since the early 1990s.

“The United States is the main guarantor of security in the transatlantic community, so the US presence is very important for both Latvia and NATO as a whole,” concludes Sprūds.

Ozolina says that NATO members are currently thinking very seriously about expanding their presence in the Baltic States and Poland. “It would be in Latvia’s interest for this presence to be permanent and strong enough.”

Especially at a time of tension at NATO’s eastern border. “The division between peace and war is very blurred today, so NATO must be prepared for very different situations,” Ozolina concludes.

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