The Kremlin tried to justify their dictator and said he could deliver a message in 2023.
“The flight of the Russian Federation from the Kyiv region and northern Ukraine in April 2022 likely ruined Putin’s plans to declare victory during a speech to the federal assembly,” analysts said.
ISW recalled how, in March 2014, the Russian president took the opportunity to deliver a speech announcing the illegal annexation of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol.
Perhaps Putin is still waiting and hoping to deliver a big victory speech in 2023 or postpone the moment when he will have to admit that the Russian Federation cannot achieve its goals in Ukraine (admit defeat in the war)“, emphasize the experts.
The Institute is also convinced that when addressing the Russian public and elites, a dictator may be unsure of his ability to justify the cost of a war against Russia’s domestic and global problems.
“A victory in Ukraine could have allowed Putin to mask Russia’s human and financial losses, as he did in 2014, but the Russian Federation has not had any battlefield successes since the occupation of Lysichansk in July,” explains the report.
At the same time, the Russian president continued to sow panic among the population when he vaguely answered the question about the duration of the war and the second wave of mobilization. As such, he has attracted criticism and confusion among the pro-war community.
And the flight of Russians from Kherson also angered the ideologues of the “Russian world”, who began to doubt Putin’s loyalty and ability to create “Great Russia”.
To avoid even greater problems, the dictator has canceled his annual press conference with members of the Russian public.
“Putin appears to be turning increasingly to pre-recorded, scheduled speeches as he tries to sidestep the risks of answering tough questions about Russia’s failures in the war on Ukraine,” the ISW added.
Key points:
- Ukrainian officials predict that Russian forces may try to launch a full-scale offensive in early 2023.
- Ukraine’s air defense shot down all drones fired by Russian troops on December 14.
- Ukrainian sources reported that 64 POWs had returned to Ukrainian-controlled territory.
- The Kremlin is likely to step up its information operations aimed at presenting the Ukrainian authorities as violators of religious and press freedom.
- Ukrainian troops continued counteroffensive operations, while Russian counterattacks were carried out in the Svatovoe and Kremennaya area.
- Russian troops continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka area.
- Russian troops continued to defend south of the Dnieper in the Kherson region.
- Kremlin officials have admitted they have received complaints about the mobilization, despite it being “virtually complete”.
- Ukrainian partisans continue to assist Ukrainian forces in identifying Russian targets.
