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Long queues formed in front of gas stations in Ukraine on Thursday.
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However, there is no risk of deliveries stopped at least for now, experts say
The war between Russia and Ukraine, which the world has feared for months but is now a reality, has almost doubled the price of gas in just one day. At the end of trading on the Dutch stock exchange TTF, it reached over 141 euros per megawatt-hour, while the previous day the levels were 89 euros.
Even on the Bulgarian stock exchange “Gas Hub Balkan” the price of megawatt-hour gas with a day of delivery on February 25 was BGN 227.64, which is an increase of 43% compared to the previous day.
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The sharp jump in quotes
foretells and
sensitive
price increase for
all
consumers, because on March 1 Bulgargaz has to submit its price offer next month. Forecasts are difficult to make at the moment, as TTF quotes are high and difficult to predict, and they make up 70% of the gas price mix in our country. But if they remain at current levels, the increase will be close to the 30% jump it had in January.
Up are also oil prices, whose derivatives – fuel oil and sulfur-containing gas oil – hold the other 30% of the formula in the price of Russian gas with quotes 9 months ago. Azeri gas supplies are also priced according to the oil formula. And only since the end of last year, oil prices have risen by nearly 40%.
According to leading experts with whom “24 Chasa” talks, the rise in oil prices will seriously affect gas prices in our country in the last quarter of the year.
Deliveries to Bulgaria are not endangered, experts say. Moreover, quantities through the “Balkan Stream” from Bulgaria go to Serbia and Hungary, as well as to Greece and Macedonia. And they are unlikely to be stopped because
Putin would not
deprived of
delivery
friendly
tuned
Serbia and the North
Macedonia
Europe needs gas and Russia needs money. I am 99.9% sure that deliveries will not be stopped. And the prices have gone crazy because it is speculation, everyone expects something bad, commented a top specialist. According to other experts, gas for Bulgaria can be stopped only if it is not paid for.
This gives reason to hope that the crane for transport through Bulgarian territory will not be turned, which is probably the only positive prognosis during the war.
Sources close to Bulgargaz also said that, at least for now, there are no problems with supplies, and there are no indications that Russia is reducing them. But the gas company, which is a public supplier, is preparing for any situation so that there is no problem for customers.
At the moment there is no delay in the supply of natural gas, but this does not mean that there is no such risk, said the Minister of Energy Alexander Nikolov. Alternatives are the Southern Gas Corridor and liquefied gas supplies. There are also no indications of delays in fuel supplies so far, but there are talks about alternatives.
Blue fuel traders commented that there would be a problem if the sanctions hit the payment system with Russia – then even if you get gas, you can’t pay for it. However, experts describe such a move as a character for the European Union. They are adamant that after Ukraine the consequences for European countries will be the worst.
The first scenario is that the supply of Russian gas through the Balkan Stream will not stop, but the prices will firmly and permanently go up.
Whether there is gas in the Chiren storage, or it is 20% full, was not crucial. Even if there is 100% injected gas in it, the daily yield is about 4 million cubic meters with 10 million daily consumption in the country.
If the gas storage was expanded from 500 million to 1 billion cubic meters, then it would be possible to produce 10 million on a daily basis, ie daily consumption in our country. However, there has been no enlargement, which has been talked about for 6-7 years.
For the other scenarios, the most drastic of which is the suspension of Russian gas, the options are supplies of liquefied, Azeri, but probably at market price on the bypass route through Siderokastro – Kulata.
The war in Ukraine also brought record fuel price levels in our country, after oil exceeded $ 100 per barrel. At some of the sites of the big chains the mass price is BGN 2.67-2.68, and the diesel – BGN 2.74. These prices are higher than the historical record, which was registered in 2012, when oil reached 140 dollars. .
Even higher
prices are expected
the next
week
because the recent rise in oil has not yet been fully reflected. (Whether there will be a deficit and how the quotations will move – see page 3.)
The dance of fuel prices has once again put on the agenda the idea of releasing quantities from the reserve to calm the market. However, according to experts, this will not lead to cheaper, because there is no mechanism to control the markup that traders will put on the resale of quantities.
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