Russian President Vladimir Putin (left) is welcoming North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui at the Moscow Kremlin on the 16th (local time). 2024.01.17 [모스크바=AP/뉴시스]
North Korean media reported yesterday that Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed “willingness to visit as soon as possible” in response to North Korea’s invitation to visit North Korea. North Korea reported the results of Foreign Minister Choe Son-hee’s recent visit to Russia and said, “We are ready to welcome you with the utmost sincerity.” In addition, it was said that the two countries further strengthened ‘strategic and tactical cooperation’ and “achieved a consensus and satisfactory agreement on the issue of establishing and expanding and developing the relationship between the two countries on a new legal basis.”
There are many speculations that Putin’s visit to North Korea will take place after the presidential election in March, but the timing may be brought forward. In particular, as demand for North Korean weapons for the Ukrainian war increases, Putin’s visit to North Korea will accelerate. Putin’s visit to North Korea will be his first in 24 years since 2000, and it will be a return visit to Chairman Kim Jong-un’s visit to the Russian Far East in September of last year. Considering the weight of diplomacy between leaders, Putin’s visit to North Korea is highly likely to be an opportunity for North Korea and Russia to become closer militarily, beyond the level of an arms deal exchanging North Korean artillery shells and Russian technology. The Kremlin also said earlier that it had discussed developing relations in “sensitive areas.”
In particular, it is noteworthy that North Korea mentioned a ‘new legal basis’ between the two countries. North Korea and Russia had a cooling off period for nearly 10 years after the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, but only restored relations in 2000. At that time, the newly concluded friendship treaty between North Korea and Russia replaced the 1961 Friendship Treaty, which stipulated ‘automatic military intervention’ in times of emergency, with ‘consultation in case of crisis’ and redefined the existing military alliance relationship as an economic cooperation partner. This time, North Korea and Russia are likely to include stronger mutual security and military cooperation through treaty revision or new agreement. If that happens, North Korea will have Russia and China as its de facto military allies.
North Korea is also rapidly normalizing economic cooperation with China. According to an announcement by the General Administration of Customs of China, the volume of trade between North Korea and China last year amounted to $2.3 billion, 2.4 times that of the year before. It has recovered to 82% of the level in 2019 before COVID-19. As North Korea and China marked this year’s 75th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations as the ‘Year of Friendship’, closer ties between the two countries will also accelerate. Kim Jong-un, with China and Russia at his back, is already threatening a ‘great cataclysm to pacify the Republic of Korea’, and the United States is also expressing serious concerns about the escalation of North Korea’s threat due to ‘unprecedented North Korea-Russia military cooperation’. We must be more vigilant and prepare for the turbulence of a new Cold War that will hit Northeast Asia this year.
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2024-01-21 15:00:00
