Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) analyzed statements by Russian dictator Vladimir Putin that the West is “the enemy of Russia” and the Russian Federation is “waging an existential war against the West in Ukraine.”
Source: ISW
Details: Russian President Vladimir Putin called the West “the enemy” of Russia and suggested that Russia is fighting in Ukraine to defeat the West.
Putin responded to a Russian soldier’s question about Western help for Ukraine during a meeting at a military hospital in the Moscow region on January 1, saying Russia’s problem is not that the West is helping Ukraine, but that the West is “Russia’s enemy.”
He added that “Ukraine itself is not an enemy (for Russia – ed.),” but that Western players “who want to destroy Russian statehood” and achieve “the strategic defeat of Russia on the battlefield” are enemies of Russia.
Putin said that Western elites are trying to break Russia into five parts and are trying to do this using Ukraine, but the situation on the fronts is changing, and Russia will “deal with (the West – ed.) faster” than the West can deal with Russia on the battlefields in Ukraine.
The dictator added that the problem is not the supply of Western aid to Ukraine, and noted that Ukraine is already “completely destroyed,” that there is “nothing left” of it, and that it “exists only on handouts.”
Putin hinted that Russia was waging an existential war against the West in Ukraine, and noted that Western rhetoric had recently shifted toward how to “quickly end the conflict.”
Analysts note that this formulation means that Putin sees a conflict and potential negotiations between Russia and the West, and not a conflict and potential negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.
Putin added that Russia also wants to end the conflict between Russia and the West, but only on the Kremlin’s terms, and stressed that Russia will not give up its positions.
The Russian President does not view Ukraine as an independent player and thus portrays his full-scale invasion of Ukraine as a confrontation between Russia and the West – deliberately distorting the reality that Russia invaded Ukraine with the goal of destroying the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine.
Putin’s emphasis on changing narratives in the West may indicate that he will perceive and/or present any weakening of Western support for Ukraine and any Ukrainian defeats on the battlefield as a Russian victory in this supposed Russian-Western confrontation.
Putin’s framing of his war in Ukraine as Russia’s fight against the West, rather than Ukraine, indicates that he does not intend to negotiate in good faith with Ukraine and is setting informational conditions aimed at persuading the West to betray Ukraine through negotiations.
Putin is likely deliberately and falsely portraying Ukraine as a powerless pawn in the conflict between Russia and the West in order to disguise his expansionist and maximalist goals of establishing full effective Russian control over Ukraine.
“Putin’s January 1 statement on negotiations refers to his intention to negotiate exclusively with the West about the future of Ukraine in the Russian sphere of influence and only about the West’s abandonment of Ukraine,” the report says.
Putin previously followed a similar line when he issued two ultimatums to the United States and NATO in December 2021, which were intended to force the West to recognize Russia’s sphere of influence in Eastern Europe by ceding essential elements of Ukraine’s sovereignty in the name of de-escalating the conflict between the West and Russia that Putin was fueling.
Any Western commitment to negotiating the future of Ukraine, bypassing Ukraine, would signal to Russia that it can impose its will on countries it perceives to be within its sphere of influence, potentially including Finland and Moldova, about which Russian actors have begun to create information conditions. for future campaigns.
Putin could expand his military goals in Ukraine to include confrontation with the West to create the conditions for an ongoing Russian military buildup and justify high casualties on the battlefield.
Moreover, his statements likely indicate that he is preparing a long-term justification for keeping troops mobilized and engaged in ostensible defense of Russian sovereignty against the West.
ISW Key Findings for January 2:
- Putin has defined the West as Russia’s “enemy” and hinted that Russia is fighting in Ukraine in order to defeat the West.
- The fact that Putin frames his war in Ukraine as Russia’s fight against the West, rather than against Ukraine, indicates that he does not intend to negotiate in good faith with Ukraine and is creating information conditions aimed at persuading the West to betray Ukraine through negotiations.
- Putin may be expanding his military goals in Ukraine, including confrontation with the West, to create the conditions for an ongoing Russian military buildup and justify high casualties on the battlefield.
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, in an interview with The Economist published on January 1, stressed the need for urgent Western support to protect both Ukraine and the rest of Europe.
- Between December 31 and January 2, Russian forces carried out another massive series of drone and missile strikes deep in Ukraine’s rear areas, one of which involved a package of strikes similar to the one on December 29, which appears to have been Ukrainian troops are adapting.
- The West’s provision of air defense systems and missiles to Ukraine remains critical for Ukraine as Russian forces are likely to try to adapt to Ukrainian air defense capabilities.
- Russian officials have publicly outlined the goals of Russia’s 2024 chairmanship of the BRICS and CIS, articulating how the Kremlin may intend to use these organizations to achieve its foreign policy goals this year.
- The Norwegian government announced on January 1 that it is allowing Norwegian defense companies to sell weapons and defense products directly to the Ukrainian government.
- The Turkish government announced on January 2 that it would not allow the United Kingdom (UK) to transport two mine-sweeping ships to Ukraine through the Turkish straits “while the war continues.”
- Russian society continues to reckon with the consequences of growing anti-migrant sentiment amid ongoing efforts by Russian authorities to systematically disenfranchise migrant communities in Russia.
- Russian forces have made minor confirmed advances along the Svatovo-Kremennaya line, northwest and southwest of Bakhmut, northwest of Avdiivka, and southwest of Donetsk.
- Russian military commanders may be looking to pardon repeat offenders who previously fought in the war in Ukraine, apparently seeking to preserve Russia’s ability to use convicted recruits as human resources.
- Russian occupation authorities are restricting and likely monitoring internet communications ahead of the March 2024 presidential elections.
2024-01-03 03:52:19
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