Putin’s Long Game: Why Peace in Ukraine Remains Elusive Under Trump’s Presidency
More than 24 hours have passed since Donald Trump’s inauguration, and the peace he promised in Ukraine within that timeframe has yet to materialize. According to sources in Moscow,this outcome is not surprising. Vladimir Putin is not waging war against ukraine alone—he sees the conflict as a broader struggle against the West.This perspective fundamentally shapes his approach to ending the war, which starkly contrasts with Trump’s vision.
Putin’s War Against the West
In the weeks following Trump’s inauguration, Moscow insiders have been nearly unanimous: Putin has no intention of ending the war or engaging in meaningful negotiations.“Putin does not at all believe that Ukraine should be his negotiating partner,” one source revealed. Russian propaganda has long framed the conflict as a battle against the West, not Kyiv—and Putin genuinely believes this narrative.
This mindset traces back to December 2021, when Putin issued an ultimatum to the West. He demanded a radical reorganization of the global order, including a halt to NATO’s eastward expansion and a return to the alliance’s 1990s borders. While these demands were dismissed as unrealistic, they underscore Putin’s broader ambition: to reshape the world order in Russia’s favor.
World War III on the Horizon?
Putin’s vision of global chaos as a pathway to Russian resurgence is not new. In 2013, a high-ranking official from Putin’s inner circle predicted that a third world war could erupt during the centenary of World War I. At the time,this seemed far-fetched,but the official argued that chaos was Russia’s only chance to compete with the U.S. economically. “if everything continues as it is now, if russia competes according to the existing rules, it is doomed to failure,” the official saeid. “The only chance is to let the board fall, to break all the rules. Only in chaos does Russia have a chance.”
This prediction has seemingly guided putin’s actions. by invading Ukraine, he has upended the global order and continues to pursue chaos as a strategic goal. for Putin, peace with Ukraine is not a priority—it doesn’t align with his broader objectives.
Putin’s Optimism and the Fall of Western Leaders
Kremlin sources report that putin is currently “optimistic to the extreme.” He views the fall of his Western adversaries—first Boris Johnson in the UK and now Joe Biden in the U.S.—as validation of his strategy. Trump’s victory, in particular, is seen as a win for Putin. However, the russian president does not consider this the end of his war against the West.
Rather, Putin is pushing for a new Yalta-style conference, reminiscent of the 1945 meeting where Allied powers divided post-war Europe. He seeks a similar agreement to carve out spheres of influence, and he believes Trump is more amenable to this idea than Biden. “Putin’s idea for a new Yalta conference was conveyed to Trump through various channels long before the presidential election,” a source revealed. While Trump has neither confirmed nor denied this, the Kremlin remains hopeful that decisive negotiations are on the horizon.
A War of Attrition
For now, Ukraine has taken a backseat in Putin’s calculations. The prevailing view in Moscow is that time is on Russia’s side. Russian economists, albeit using questionable data, estimate that Putin can sustain the war in its current form for at least another year. Putin himself is reportedly convinced that Ukraine cannot endure such a prolonged conflict.
To ensure the war continues, Putin has made deliberately unacceptable demands, such as Ukraine surrendering unoccupied parts of donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporozhye, and Kherson regions. These terms are not meant to facilitate negotiations but to guarantee their failure, ensuring the war of attrition drags on.
Key Takeaways
| Aspect | Details |
|————————–|—————————————————————————–|
| Putin’s Goal | Reshape the global order, weaken the west, and secure spheres of influence. |
| Negotiation Stance | No interest in peace with Ukraine; views the war as a broader Western conflict. |
| trump’s Role | Seen as a potential ally for a new Yalta-style agreement. |
| War Strategy | Prolonged war of attrition to exhaust Ukraine and its Western backers.|
| Current Demands | Unrealistic territorial concessions to prevent meaningful negotiations.|
What’s Next?
As the war drags on, Putin’s strategy hinges on outlasting Ukraine and its Western allies. While Trump’s presidency offers a glimmer of hope for a new geopolitical arrangement, the path to peace remains fraught with uncertainty. For now, the world watches as Putin’s long game unfolds, with Ukraine caught in the crossfire of a conflict that extends far beyond its borders.
Michael Zigar, Spiegel
Putin’s Long Game: Why Peace in Ukraine Remains Elusive Under Trump’s Presidency
As the conflict in Ukraine continues into its second year, the prospect of peace remains uncertain. With Donald Trump’s presidency offering a new dynamic in global politics, the world watches as Vladimir Putin’s strategic ambitions unfold. This interview with Dr. Elena volkov, a geopolitical analyst specializing in Russian foreign policy, explores the complexities of Putin’s approach, the broader implications of the war, and why lasting peace remains out of reach.
The broader Conflict: Putin’s War Against the West
Senior Editor: Dr. Volkov, the article suggests that Putin sees the war in Ukraine as part of a larger struggle against the west.Can you elaborate on this perspective?
Dr. Volkov: Absolutely. Putin’s actions in Ukraine are not just about territorial control or regional influence. For him, the conflict is a proxy war against the West, particularly NATO. He views Ukraine’s alignment with Western institutions as a direct threat to Russia’s sphere of influence. His ultimate goal is to weaken Western dominance and reassert Russia as a global power. This is why he has framed the war in ideological terms, portraying it as a defense against Western encroachment.
Senior Editor: How does this mindset shape his approach to negotiations and peace efforts?
Dr. Volkov: It makes meaningful negotiations almost impossible. Putin doesn’t see Ukraine as an independent negotiating partner; he views it as a battleground in a larger geopolitical struggle. His demands, such as halting NATO expansion and redrawing global security arrangements, are non-starters for the West. This creates a stalemate where neither side is willing to concede, prolonging the conflict.
The Threat of Escalation: World War III on the horizon?
Senior Editor: The article mentions predictions of global chaos and even the possibility of a third world war. How serious are these concerns?
Dr. Volkov: The risk of escalation is real, though not inevitable. Putin’s strategy thrives on creating instability. By disrupting the global order, he aims to level the playing field and diminish Western hegemony. The invasion of Ukraine is a manifestation of this approach. While outright global war is unlikely, the potential for unintended escalation—especially with NATO’s involvement—remains a significant concern.
Senior Editor: Do you think Putin’s strategy is enduring in the long term?
Dr. Volkov: It’s a high-risk, high-reward approach. In the short term, putin has managed to destabilize Europe and strain Western alliances. However, over time, Russia’s economy and military resources may not be able to sustain this level of confrontation. The long-term success of his strategy depends on whether he can outlast Ukraine and its Western supporters.
Putin’s Optimism: The Fall of Western Leaders
Senior Editor: The article notes that Putin is “optimistic to the extreme.” What is driving this optimism, and how might it influence his actions?
Dr. Volkov: Putin’s optimism stems from his perception that the West is in decline.The political turmoil in the UK and the U.S., coupled with Trump’s election, has reinforced his belief that Western leaders are weak and divided. he sees these developments as opportunities to advance his agenda, particularly in pursuing a new Yalta-style agreement to redefine spheres of influence.
Senior Editor: How likely is it that Trump would support such an agreement?
Dr. Volkov: Trump’s willingness to engage with Putin is well-documented, but whether he would endorse a yalta-style deal is unclear. Such an agreement would require significant concessions from the U.S. and its allies, which could face strong domestic and international opposition. However, Putin remains hopeful that Trump’s presidency could pave the way for a new geopolitical arrangement.
Prolonging the Conflict: A War of Attrition
Senior Editor: The article suggests that Putin is waging a war of attrition to prolong the conflict. What are the implications of this strategy?
Dr. Volkov: A war of attrition is designed to wear down Ukraine and its western backers economically and militarily. By making unrealistic demands—such as Ukraine surrendering unoccupied territories—Putin ensures that negotiations fail, and the conflict continues. This approach buys him time to consolidate Russia’s gains and exploit divisions within the West.
Senior Editor: How does Ukraine’s resilience factor into this equation?
Dr. Volkov: Ukraine’s resilience has been remarkable, but it has come at a tremendous cost. The prolonged conflict has devastated the country’s infrastructure, economy, and population. While Ukraine remains committed to its sovereignty, the toll of the war raises questions about how long it can sustain its defense without significant external support.
Conclusion: What lies Ahead?
Senior Editor: Dr. Volkov, based on your analysis, what do you see as the most likely outcome of Putin’s long game?
Dr. Volkov: The situation remains highly fluid. Putin’s strategy hinges on outlasting Ukraine and exploiting Western divisions. While Trump’s presidency introduces a new variable, the path to peace is fraught with challenges. Ultimately, resolving the conflict will require addressing Putin’s broader geopolitical ambitions, not just the immediate crisis in Ukraine. Until then, the world will continue to watch as this delicate and dangerous game unfolds.
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