Here is what the doctor posted on his page socializing:-
Many people ask me about the new strains of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that produces COVID.
After the change of taxonomy (classification) by the WHO, viral variants received letters of the Greek alphabet, instead of their “geographical” name which predisposed to various confusions.
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Alpha is considered to be the first recorded variant, the Wuhan strain (China), and from which all the others descend, later evolved into Beta, Gamma and so on.
Currently, two strains are considered of interest, namely Delta and Delta Plus, respectively.
Delta Plus is a separate line of descent from Delta, common in terms of the characteristics of genes that are involved in the synthesis of Spike protein with the Beta variant, or the British “Kent mutation”.
As a result, it is considered by some specialists, at this moment, as a “super-variant”, both regarding the infectivity and the bypass capacity of the immune system.
Delta Plus worries us a lot, medically.
Virus mutagenesis in the midst of an epidemic is a phenomenon with two areas of unpredictability: one that can be mapped, and predicted with an acceptable degree of fidelity, let’s call it “predictable unpredictability”, given the “ratchet” character of the evolution towards neutrality of genetic alleles / polymorphisms (over time inactivated, or degenerated). The other is the great blind watchmaker, the character of life to be completely unfriendly. We call it “chaos.”
The term “wave” is inappropriate
The emergence of the Delta variant was part of the unpredictable, beyond the fact that it wreaked havoc in India. Delta Plus, however, does not. Delta Plus could create chaos.
At this moment, regarding the epidemic evolution in Romania, but also the known genealogy of coronavirus variants in the world / on the globe, some things become obvious:
1. It’s a matter of months before the number of COVID infections starts to rise again. The term “wave” is inappropriate as long as vaccination continues, and remains a barrier to viral connectomics, ie the distance the virus must travel between two vulnerable hosts.
2. It is a matter of months before a variant of coronavirus will be able to cross the immune barrier obtained by the individual either by disease or by vaccine.
3. As a result, it is very possible that anti-COVID vaccination will enter the regular practice of immunizing the population, similar to the influenza vaccination campaign.
4. Current observations, at least in Israel, that infections observed with Delta in those vaccinated are most likely caused by a statistical defect, not by a predisposition of those vaccinated to contact the new strain (variant).
5. On the other hand, what we should have already remembered, as a public health strategy, is that what is today in Hanoi, tomorrow is in Buenos Aires. And with the painful, lasting transformations in terms of the movement of people over long distances (airport, rail, sea, etc.), the safety net is not perfect.
6. Today, we have a small outbreak of COVID with Delta variant in Argeş. It is difficult to say / predict / estimate where he will go, if he goes to Moldova tomorrow or arrives in Botosani the day after tomorrow. The rule is “an outbreak everywhere, an outbreak everywhere.”
7. Why do small pandemic figures remain in Romania, despite all of the above? Because we still have enough islands of immunity, and some mobility that protects us, respectively the surrounding immunization campaigns, significantly better than ours (at least in the West).
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And yet, the curvature of the spread of an agent / viral vector to the point where it is no longer epidemic / pandemic will not be possible by its extinction, but by the evolution of the population, respectively the adaptation of the host (human).
The virus is always one step ahead of the vaccine
Biologically, man will adapt to the virus. The purpose of science, the use of vaccines, will have the sole humanitarian result that this “adaptation” will be done with less loss of life. As well as the relationship between the virus and the vaccine, however, it is a rabbit / turtle type. The virus is always one step ahead of the vaccine.
Our hopes are for the possibility that a) cellular immunity (much more versatile) is able to “recognize” and neutralize coronavirus as it is successively exposed to waves of infection, respectively b) that vaccination gradually becomes more adoptable in populations .
The paradox of the adoptability of the anti-COVID vaccine in the population is that, most likely, it will also happen under the pressure of terror and the immense fear of disease, and death.
A new 2020 should not be repeated
The alternative of making vaccination against COVID mandatory (similar to wearing a seat belt, or first aid kit) is hampered by various issues specific to the medical act, or public health policies, in relation to the medical / economic burden of the pandemic. of COVID. Ironically, although we have 4 million victims, hundreds of millions infected / cured, trillions of dollars lost in the surrounding economic disaster, the world’s leaders still consider COVID morbidity to be incompatible with compulsory vaccination. It’s something we medically have to accept.
Finally, this fight that we have had, in the last year and a half, with the “new coronavirus” will be guarded by many people from a fatal outcome. For now. You learn, as a doctor, to adjust your realities and expectations as life goes on.
Yes, I’m watching the Delta / Delta Plus news. Do we now have enough knowledge that a new 2020 will not be repeated, maybe even worse, in Romania?
Yes. Circuits performed, doctors already familiar with the pathology, improved working algorithms, treatment schemes with already solid empirical support, and vaccine.
Unfortunately, we do not have more epidemiologists, better performing DSPs, an elastic and robust digitization. And for now, it doesn’t seem to bother anyone that we don’t. Because we have other priorities.
The crisis, some say, is the mother of opportunity. Others say he’s the bastard child of stupidity. It depends on how you look at the problem.
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