How much hurry does Rutte IV want to make with reducing nitrogen? The double message that the cabinet released on Friday, after many consultations in a crisis atmosphere, led above all to confusion. The CDA wants to renegotiate the nitrogen section of the coalition agreement in a few months. But that does not delay the nitrogen approach, according to Prime Minister Mark Rutte. On the contrary: the cabinet will ‘accelerate’ it.
It seemed mainly an incantation to keep coalition partners CDA and D66, opposites in this dossier, satisfied for the time being. So that the cabinet can continue to govern for at least a few more months. The CDA does not want to start the renegotiations until there is an Agricultural Agreement and when it is clear what agreements the new provincial coalitions will come up with. The formation talks have only just begun.
The criticism from opposition parties, who will debate with the cabinet on Tuesday, is harsh and unanimous: cabinet, finally make choices!
Read also: Coalition saved for the time being by postponing sensitive nitrogen decisions
As yet, no one knows what this ‘acceleration’ exactly means. The Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Fisheries will continue with “the approach as it currently stands”, the department said on Sunday. Exactly what can be accelerated “will become clearer in the coming weeks.” The department hopes to receive approval from the European Commission soon for a new voluntary buy-out scheme for peak loaders.
High chance of delay
In the meantime, the chance of delay is huge. The government’s goal of halving nitrogen emissions by 2030 compared to 2019 will almost certainly disappear, now that The Hague has handed over the initiative to the provinces.
As the election winner, BBB has the initiative in all formations. The party only wants to cooperate with coalition parties if two hard demands are met: the year 2030 must be taken off the table, and forced expropriation of farmers is not negotiable.
If BBB succeeds in forming coalitions, it will be impossible for Rutte IV to hold on to 2030. The CDA is betting on that scenario. But D66 will not easily give in if the CDA wants to break up the coalition agreement afterwards. D66 MP and campaign leader Hanneke van der Werf wrote in an internal message to members on Saturday: “Know that they will find our squadron in the cabinet opposed and our group is combative.”
No matter how difficult that negotiation becomes, the will to come to an agreement together seems great. All four coalition parties lost seats in the election. Nobody seems to have such an interest in a fall of the cabinet and early parliamentary elections.
What will happen in the meantime with the new nitrogen law, which regulates the advancement of the nitrogen target from 2035 to 2030, is uncertain. Responsible minister Christianne van der Wal (Nature and Nitrogen, VVD) wanted to submit the bill to the House of Representatives before the summer. It seems inconceivable that the CDA will now support this.
Provinces want clarity
The provinces are still expected to come up with preliminary plans to reduce nitrogen emissions before July 1. Those provinces demand clarity from the cabinet. “The government must first create frameworks,” said Overijssel CDA deputy Eddy van Hijum on Saturday. News hour. Mirjam Sterk, CDA deputy in Utrecht, said he lacked the tools to make plans with farmers.
The provinces do not yet know who the peak loaders are that should be bought out. The cabinet has not yet announced any arrangements for relocating farms. And it is still unclear whether innovations, such as special stable floors, will hold up in court as a solution.
Everyone looks at each other for the first move: the cabinet to the provinces, the provinces to the cabinet.
In the meantime, Agriculture Minister Piet Adema (ChristenUnie) will have to continue his negotiations with farmers and nature managers about an Agriculture Agreement, which should make it clear to farmers where they stand and what is expected of them.
Van der Tak formulates a breaking point
Sjaak van der Tak, chairman of the agricultural organization LTO, started those talks on Sunday Buitenhof on edge by even changing 2035. He thinks in the direction of 2035 and 2040. He also formulated a “breaking point”: the cabinet must help the so-called PAS reporters. These agricultural entrepreneurs were allowed to expand their farm without a permit, until the Council of State put an end to this in 2019. Since then, the approximately 2,500 entrepreneurs have been in violation. There will be no Agricultural Agreement, said Van der Tak, if there is no solution for them.
Legalizing all these farmers costs a lot of nitrogen space. And as long as the cabinet gives too little priority to nature restoration, there will always be a court to destroy permits for construction projects, among other things.
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Read the NRC research here: Nitrogen approach cabinet under pressure: dozens of peak loaders cannot be bought out
The cabinet awaits a difficult parliamentary debate on Tuesday, which is formally about the results of the provincial elections, but will be dominated by nitrogen. Clarify, the opposition will demand, which will also try to play CDA and D66 apart. There is a good chance that the right-wing opposition will submit a motion calling on the cabinet to refrain from the nitrogen law for the time being. It will be difficult for the CDA not to support such a proposal.
At the same time, CDA leader Wopke Hoekstra will have to combat the image that he is now only making trouble about the nitrogen plans because he feels BBB’s hot breath. The opposition will say, he could have come to new negotiations much sooner in the coalition with his demand?
There is also criticism from the parties’ own supporters. “2030 must remain sacred,” tweeted Jonge Democraten, the youth wing of D66. He believes that their party should not shrink back, otherwise “they had better pull the plug”.
But according to D66 party leader Sigrid Kaag, there is no question of shrinking back: “The cabinet is implementing the nitrogen policy, as agreed,” she wrote to the members this weekend. According to her, “all coalition parties” agree: “We have to move forward faster.”
How do you let the cow graze in such a way that it emits less? page S10-11
A version of this article also appeared in the newspaper of April 3, 2023
