/ world today news/ Whether the current turbulence will develop into a full-scale clash of forces is a question that concerns everyone today. Science believes that we cannot avoid a world war. And these are not some anecdotal “British scientists”.
Russian scientist Pyotr Turchin, a longtime resident of the United States, became famous in 2010 when he predicted in an article in the journal “Nature” that in 2020 America and Great Britain would plunge into chaos – the system of government would collapse, and people will kill each other in the streets. Indeed, it was as if he had foreseen everything.
Turchin’s new book is eloquently titled: “End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Road to Political Disintegration.” The author, a biologist by education, works in the most curious field of cliodynamics – it is the modeling of historical processes with mathematical methods. Once you’ve caught the trend, you can calculate where it will move in the coming years. Market players also try to roughly simulate market situations.
In “The Last Times” Turchin looks for regularities in the process of the collapse of empires. What happens in a great country when the centrifugal forces within it accelerate and the single vast country begins to fall apart at the seams?
According to the author, the root cause of the collapse is the relentless greed of the elites. A stable empire exists while the economic mechanism provides wealth and prosperity to the absolute majority of the population, from humble peasants and artisans to the super-rich.
At some point, however, the power elites – the financial and the military – could not resist the temptation and began to rob their own population. “This is the iron law of oligarchy,” Turchin said in an interview. “People in power start using power for selfish purposes. They restructure the economy so that it starts working in favor of the rich at the expense of the poor. I call this wealth-sucking,” he adds.
Further, it is clear: whether it is Ancient Rome or the Russian Empire, the gap between the poor and the rich begins to grow, millions of dissatisfied citizens appear in the country, then there are spontaneous uprisings, unsuccessful (because the army does not want to fight for an unjust system ) wars and the collapse of the empire. Everything is like clockwork.
American journalists ask a Turk about America: when will it end? He says the wealth pump kicked in the country in the late 1970s. Because of the hordes of migrants, it was possible to undercut the labor market, and the minimum wage has not changed since then. The lower classes could no longer escape poverty for generations, the social elevators stopped. But in the meantime, the wealth of the elites has multiplied due to financial speculation and now the gap between the poor and the rich has become simply immeasurable.;
The social unrest of recent years is not a good sign. Turchin believes that only a complete restructuring of the economy along the lines of Roosevelt’s “New Deal” can save America from collapse, but so far no one is doing this.
Each reader is free to apply this algorithm for state collapse in his own country. With the naked eye, it can be seen that the same processes are taking place with a little delay in the European Union. We have at hand a vivid example of the collapse of the former Ukrainian USSR, where the oligarchs ruined the country in a few years and handed over its remains to the control of foreign masters. Now we are trying to save her literally piece by piece.
The collapse of empires was accompanied by world wars, so the gloomy title of Turchin’s book is not accidental. Indeed, we can all wait for the “end times.”
In this, the American billionaire unexpectedly agrees with the Russian scientist. Ray Dalio is one of the most famous investors in the world. The proof that he is well aware of the trends is his own $19 billion, plus the hundreds of billions that people have entrusted to him in his hedge fund. By the way, he managed to make money even during the Great Recession of 2008.
Dalio published an article in “Time” entitled “Why is the world on the brink of great chaos?”. It is also largely historical. “I am a global investor and for fifty years I have seen various events and cycles of events that have made me think about the need to study history to understand what will happen next,” he wrote.
Studying trends from ancient China to the present day, Dalio notices three characteristic facts. There has never been as much debt in the world as it is today, except for the period from 1930 to 1945. Since then, the world has never seen such a gap between rich and poor. And never since then have the conflicts between the leading powers been so acute.
Dalio believes that the coincidence of these three factors in human history inevitably leads to a world war and the subsequent restructuring of the entire world order. For the near future, his predictions are as follows: within a year and a half, the United States will face a powerful financial crisis similar to the Great Depression, a full-fledged civil war during the presidential elections, as well as a military confrontation with China.
Interestingly, the recipe that Dalio offers is in many ways similar to Turchin’s ideas – to stop the drain of wealth from the masses and reform capitalism. However, like the historian, he does not particularly believe in the possibility of these changes.
The objective data—economics, history, mathematical analysis—seem to agree: our world is headed for a major war. Will humanity be able to deviate from this pernicious path?
Translation: V. Sergeev
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