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As our dependence on technology grows, so does the threat of solar storms, but new research could make storm predictions better.
Hull, England – Although they are harmless to humans, solar storms can have a major impact on our lives. Solar flares, particularly coronal mass ejections (CMEs), pose a serious threat to technology in space and on Earth. These massive explosions of gas and magnetic fields from the sun’s atmosphere can trigger geomagnetic storms that can affect satellites, power grids and communications systems. Experts warn of a “real threat” – especially now that solar storm activity is increasing.
Die Royal Astronomical Society reports in a press article on its website about advances in the prediction of solar flares. According to this, these could soon enable more accurate warnings and thus protect our critical infrastructure on Earth.
“Active regions” on the sun make solar storms easier to predict
Researchers at Aberystwyth University have studied certain areas on the sun that they call “active regions”. These areas have strong magnetic fields and are the cause of CMEs. The researchers observed how these areas changed before, during and after an eruption. An important aspect of their investigations was the “critical height” of the “active regions”, i.e. the height at which the magnetic field becomes unstable and can trigger a CME.
imago0081259243h.jpgAstronomers present improved prediction techniques for solar storms © Science Photo Library/Imago
Harshita Gandhi, the project’s lead researcher, explains: “By measuring how the strength of the magnetic field decreases with altitude, we can determine the critical altitude.” She adds: “We then use this data together with a geometric model that tracks the true speed of the CMEs in three dimensions, which enables precise predictions.”
Predicting solar storms increases safety of technology on Earth
The new knowledge about the critical height and speed of CMEs enables more accurate predictions not only about the arrival of these solar storms, but also about their potential impact. Solar storms are harmless to humans, but they can disrupt our technology. One example is a solar storm in May 2024 that affected the GPS systems of farm work, such as CBS News reported.
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Gandhi emphasizes: “Our research not only improves our understanding of the Sun’s explosive behavior, but also significantly improves our ability to predict space weather events.” She adds: “This means better preparation and protection for the technological systems we rely on every day.”
Forecast enables protection from solar storms for modern infrastructure
More accurate prediction of the arrival time of CMEs is crucial for the timely activation of protective measures for satellites and power grids. For example, power grid operators can temporarily shut down systems or take measures to prevent damage from sudden power fluctuations. Likewise, satellite operators can turn off sensitive instruments and put the satellites into safe modes.
The advances in predicting solar flares and their impacts are a critical step in securing the lifeblood of our modern society, from communications to the internet to ensuring the supply of electricity. At a time when dependence on technology is ever increasing, this prediction could be crucial in keeping our world functioning. (nr)
