Did Donald Trump pacify the Middle East conflict and thus accomplish what many before him failed? Yes, writes Christian Böhme at this point. No, argues Andrea Nüsse here:
Nobody is against peace. Therefore, the announced peace agreements of several Arab countries with Israel, which US President Donald Trump was able to announce surprisingly during the last few meters of his re-election campaign, are being celebrated as historic progress. However, great unease and skepticism remain.
It would certainly be enough if the peace treaties, if they are actually signed, only lead to a cold peace – even if that was in fact the state in which at least the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain and Morocco had long been with Israel . But the sustainability of these deals is questionable for several reasons. With the exception of Sudan, they were concluded with authoritarian rulers, without discussion or involvement of the population.
US weapons as thanks for saying yes to peace with Israel
To a large extent, this is against the formal normalization of relations with Israel if the Israeli occupation of Palestinian territories is not ended beforehand. That was also the position of their rulers for decades.
In the case of Sudan it is different – and particularly sensitive: Here there is no longer a dictator at the lever who can ignore his people. The country is in a fragile democratic transition process. The US could have supported it by lifting its sanctions. Instead, they put pressure on to “force” a peace agreement with Israel. That can prove to be a mortgage for democratic government.
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The United Arab Emirates and Morocco, on the other hand, received assurance that US arms would be worth billions for their peace deals. Authoritarian regimes that oppress their own populations and, in the case of Morocco, are in constant dispute with its neighbor Algeria, are thus equipped with the most modern weapons technology – in return for peace with a distant country that has not threatened them anyway. This is a very special kind of peace dividend.
Another conflict for peace is being fueled in Morocco
In the long term, it could be even more devastating that the “peace agreements” were bought by abandoning international law. The international legal order contains the right of self-determination and the prohibition of the forcible appropriation of foreign territory.
The USA has tolerated the illegal urban sprawl of the Palestinian territories by Israel for decades. And now Trump is pushing through Morocco’s peace with Israel, disregarding international law: In return, the USA recognizes its sovereignty over the territories of Western Sahara. According to international law, they do not belong to Morocco, but the Sahrawis living there should be given the opportunity to decide their own political fate through a referendum. That is UN position. Out of frustration at the lack of progress, the Sahrawi military representation, which is supported by Algeria, recently terminated the ceasefire with Morocco. The US recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over this area falls into this explosive situation, which even a new US president will hardly be able to reverse. Responsible geo and peace policy looks different.
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