«The big beneficiaries of the weak leadership of the European Union are the Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinpingsays in “Vima” o Christian Lequenprofessor of European Politics at Sciences Po University of Paris and director of the Center for International Studies and Research (CERI) of France. He adds that “it is absolutely necessary for the EU to invest in technological innovation. In this respect, he needs to learn from the Americans.”
After all, is Michel Barnier the solution to the governmental impasse in France?
“This is a choice that came from the exhaustion of all alternatives, a compromise solution in the absence of a real majority in parliament. The difficult choice for Emmanuel Macron would be to accept Lucie Caste, candidate of the Left but under the influence of the Far Left. The best choice would be Bernard Cazeneuve from the moderate Left, but his “camp” did not want him because he is strongly social democratic and suspicious of the Far Left. The other solution, which did not work, was the Moderate Right Xavier Bernard, governor of Haute-de-France – in his case the Far Right would immediately attack his government.”
Are we witnessing, to a degree, the ineffectiveness of the centralized French system with the superpowers of the president?
“There is the Constitution and also the constitutional practice. It’s good to have a president who is – supposedly – above parties. But this president must trust the implementation of policies to his prime minister and avoid meddling in all fields. The problem with Macron is that since he came to power, and even more so after the COVID-19 crisis, he has a tendency to micromanage, starting every policy from the Elysee Palace. In a democracy like France, this is bound to cause citizen fatigue.”
Will today’s political crisis affect the 2027 presidential election in favor of far-right Marine Le Pen?
“I’m afraid of it. The National Coalition, which for now is rather quiet and has given its tacit agreement to the appointment of Barnier, is taking advantage of any chaos or destabilization in political life. It will maintain until 2027 that it is the only party that can give France a parliamentary majority combined with a suitable president.”
Are the regime crises in France and Germany the result of the erosion of the post-war foundations on which they rested?
“The German and French political systems were built on the idea that there was a Left and a Right that alternated in governance. The Right was more sensitive to capital, the Left to labor. These are now outdated, political issues are not only about capital and labor but also about identity – see immigration. These new issues have created extreme parties.”
Meanwhile, German voters broke the far-right taboo in recent elections in Thuringia and Saxony. What impact will the crises in Berlin and Paris have centrally in the EU?
“Strengthening populism everywhere and challenging liberal democracy. How can we tell Viktor Orbán of Hungary to calm down when his friends in France and Germany are having serious electoral successes? The voice of liberal democracy becomes harder to hear when major EU countries such as France and Germany lean towards the extremes.”
The EU is restarting soon with a new body of commissioners. What is the most critical call before her?
“Definitely the war in Ukraine, which has an obvious connection with the American elections. If Donald Trump wins over Kamala Harris and decides to gradually withdraw US support for Ukraine, EU states will be on their own. Will they then be prepared to make the necessary efforts to increase their military spending to support Ukraine with equal forces, possibly together with the UK? If Putin confirms the annexation of Ukrainian territories because the EU is not strong enough to help Ukraine economically and militarily, then European integration will lose its credibility as a model for defending liberal democracy.”
How will the EU cope when its Franco-German “steam engine” is underperforming? For months now, the German governing coalition has been struggling to present clear and coherent positions in Brussels, while in France the EU no longer exists on the stage and in Macron’s speeches.
“Democracies are never monoliths. They have to deal with internal diversity or intra-governmental pluralism that burdens their foreign policy. The problem is that with the proliferation of political parties, it becomes more difficult to coordinate the formulation of a policy on foreign and European issues.”
Who benefits from the current Franco-German vacuum in Europe?
“Within the EU, no one. Some argue that Italy or Poland could benefit in order to develop their leadership in the EU. I don’t really see that happening. The big beneficiaries of weak EU leadership are named Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping.”
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