The mathematician Prof. Nikolai Vitanov gave brief information about the operational situation of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine on May 27, 2022. Here is what he wrote on his personal Facebook profile:
Brief information on the operational situation for the pandemic of 27 May 2022
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I start as always – whoever thinks that this information I give is not useful or false, do not read. This is the objective state of affairs according to my methodology for analyzing complex social systems. If you don’t like it, don’t read it.
Now essentially
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As always, first the pandemic, then the war.
We drive on assessment technology and forecasts, as we do every day.
Check the pandemic situation today
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1. The “Blue Summer” scenario is stable – day 12. This scenario is – we have a quiet summer. You know – the goal is to keep it stable for 3 months (90 days) so that there are no problems in the summer.
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2. General situation – Modified Omicron fails to ignite diffuse spread And so for 57 days.
And in Europe it is still raging – Greece (next to us) – 4,000 new cases yesterday, Germany – 34,000 new cases, etc. In our country – 10 times less per 100,000 population. The Kovid crisis is over.
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Let’s see with numbers what the current situation is.
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2. The basic reproductive number – today is 0.87.
It is below 1, so the scope of the infection continues to shrink.
“Blue Summer” is unshakable, the scope of the infection continues to shrink.
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3. Super fire check – no super fire.
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Let’s look at some control numbers for today from the diffuse distribution index
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For the country – 0.08
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Sofia-city – 0.15
Plovdiv – 0.08
Burgas – 0.05
Varna – 0.03
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Along the southern borders
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Blagoevgrad – 0.11
Kardzhali – 0.08
Smolyan – 0.20
Haskovo – 0.07
Yambol – 0.03
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We know:
1. Critical value for ignition of diffuse propagation – 1.00
2. Over 1.00 – diffuse spread
3. Below 1.00 – diffuse spread stops or does not exist at all.
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Today, as expected – no problems. The indices are far below 1, there is no diffuse distribution. The sinister professor’s plan to block the spread of the modified Omicron by stopping the diffuse spread works. It’s been 57 days.
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For information – the indices in several other areas
Lovech – 0.09
Montana – 0.10
Pazardzhik – 0.07
Pernik – 0.10
Pleven – 0.03
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I drive in alphabetical order, in 5 areas every day. As you can see, there are no problems. The indices are a dozen or more times below the critical value. We look at the sea – Dobrich and Varna – over 30 times below the critical value, Burgas – 20 times below the critical value. The blue summer is coming. The Kovid crisis is over. The yurts are croaking. The moon does not pay attention to them.
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3. Check for overcrowding of hospitals. Are there overcrowded hospitals? There is no. Things are under control.
Is the healthcare system turning around about Kovid – the crisis. Get it inside. And he whistles to himself. And today . The occupancy of the beds is tens of times below the maximum capacity. Dozens of times and continues to decline. We drive 100 times below the maximum capacity. That’s how the Kovid crisis is fought. Learn how to
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4. Check for total lockdown. Where is the total lockdown?
What was a total lockdown? Tighten the season at sea, summer will be calm. The Blue Summer scenario is stable.
The incidence is an order of magnitude lower than in Germany.
You can see that with good organization, things can go no worse than Germany. Our social system is smaller. You can easily control it and turn the chain on your finger.
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5. Mortality check. You know, the goal was to increase the number of days the dead would be single digits. Here, the number of days is increasing and will continue to increase.
But slowly
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6. Conclusion from the inspection – even today, 57 days after the elimination of the emergency epidemic situation, the situation is calm. “Blue Summer” is a stable, health system
copes with the problems, the goal – to keep the summer calm, is being achieved more and more.
The diffuse spread is extinguished, the pathetic attempts of the modified Omicron to ignite it fail to one.
And they will still fail. The scope of the infection is shrinking. Forecast – this will continue. A calm June is coming.
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Sherlock Holmes is gone, and the sinister professor is gaining more and more practical experience, and his technology for predicting and controlling complex social systems is getting better.
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The result is that you will suffer from a “Blue Summer” with a Kovid crisis and you will not have any normalcy with many Kovid patients and overcrowded hospitals. It’s bad when you can’t grumble. Therefore, I should go to Siberia, and the many experts from Gank’s Café should come and normalize the situation by raising morbidity and mortality 10 times.
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7. Today – the forecast map of the 14-day morbidity. It is expected to turn yellow slowly. As you can see, there are no problems. There are several darker brown areas that are being monitored by the Ministry of Health. The situation is calm.
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Now for the war.
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We roar against Vitanov. And he is working out the technology for forecasting and controlling complex social systems. War is a wonderful field for improvements in this technology. That is why I am writing to you that feelings are not being poured here, but a cold-blooded analysis of the situation is being made. The main thing here is the improvement of technology. Not who is wrong and who is right. And who will shit on whose grave. There is a terrible simplicity in this country.
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1. We have already understood – the war will be long and will develop slowly. Why? As a consequence of the principle of enslavement of Hacken, a scenario of slow change of circumstances has stabilized. Therefore. In early June, after the three months of the TV interview (in which I said that the war would last 3 months, while almost everyone else ended it in a few days), I will analyze the situation in detail.
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Now the current situation.
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2. Daily inspection of offensives and counter-offensives.
The Russian offensive. The main goal at the moment – Donbass, the criterion for success – the capture of Kramatorsk. The criterion is not met. No large boiler is expected, but small ones are expected. The largest boiler of them is Severodonetsk – Lisichansk – almost closed. Number of the Ukrainian group there – 1 division.
Heavy fighting is expected, especially for Lisichansk. These are some of the most capable Ukrainian units. Their loss will be very unpleasant for the Ukrainians. Will they lose them? Answer – we are looking at Lyman. If the Russians manage to take it completely, then after the communication between Bakhmut and Lisichansk is cut off, the Ukrainian units in Severnodonetsk and Lisichansk will be inside the boiler if they are not withdrawn immediately to Kramatorsk.
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Ukrainian counter-offensive. Goal – to stop the Russian offensive in Donbass. Criterion – capture of Raisins. The criterion is not met. There are no cutlets. However, let us set another criterion for the success of this counter-offensive against the Kharkiv region. It is clear – the expulsion of the Russian army from the territory of Ukraine on the territory of Russia. Right. Has this been achieved? No.
There are some villages that the Ukrainian army must conquer in order to record success for it. These are: Kazachaya Lopan, Tsupovka, Ternovaya and Staritsa. We are watching. No progress has been made in this counter-offensive. The goal – to stop the Donbas offensive of the Russian army has not been achieved.
The counter-offensive near Kharkiv stopped. The Ukrainians must transfer additional units to maintain the front.
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Western weapons systems keep the Ukrainian army on its feet, but only so much. There is no large-scale counter-offensive, which shows that Western military aid is insufficient. The Russians have an advantage in Donbass.
Why? Because they operate freely through Popasnaya and Izyum.
The breakthrough at Popasnaya is not blocked. From Izyum the Russians are about to take Liman. This will shackle the entire Kramatorsk group of the Ukrainian army, because after Lyman is Kramatorsk. Below, Bakhmut covers Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, but Russian forces are 5 kilometers away. It is not expected to fall soon, it is strongly fortified.
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There are no significant changes further south. The Ukrainians hold the front at Avdeevka and further south at Gulyaipole.
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Therefore, the active part of the war was near Liman and Severodonetsk. There we expect a fierce battle in the coming days with the possible complete capture of Lyman by the Russian army.
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We are looking at the line Novodonetsk – Dobropolie – Pokrovsk.
For now, it is under Ukrainian control. Why are we watching this? Because if the Russians take it, they will close the big Kramatorsk boiler. It will be difficult, they do not have numbers even for such a thing.
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Ukraine’s manpower losses are growing rapidly. I have already written – Western aid is insufficient to compensate for losses in equipment of the Ukrainian army. It is a living slaughterhouse to send territorial defense battalions armed only with automatic weapons and hand grenades against tanks, artillery and aircraft.
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3. The propaganda war. In the warring countries, the situation is stable – the peoples are still well caught in the grip of propaganda. This scenario is not expected to change.
Ukrainians are expected to get used to the bad news following the breakthrough at the Popasnaya front. The effect of the conquest of Mariupol began to fade. In order to continue the psychological pressure against the Ukrainian population, the Russian army must take over 1 city a week. This will be difficult because the Ukrainian forces are roaming the larger cities in Donbass and will put up fierce resistance.
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The Russians are calmer about propaganda. The war is not on their territory, and there have been successes lately. There, the mental state of the people is kept in the area of the set parameters supporting the military actions.
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In our country – what it was, it is stable is a scenario of failed pro-Ukrainian propaganda. How to fix this – tips from THAT MAN (quote from THAT MAN, day 13, not Bismarck)
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… Good propaganda really shouldn’t lie. There is no reason to be afraid of the truth. It is wrong to believe that people cannot accept the truth. They can. It is only a matter of presenting the truth to people in a way that they will be able to understand. Propaganda that proves that there is a bad cause. Such propaganda cannot be successful in the long run …..
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Short comment – it is clear why pro-Ukrainian propaganda in Bulgaria has failed. It was not presented in a way that people can understand. We talked about how great we are, that we accommodate them in five-star hotels and give large sums of money per day. How did he explain this to the people, who breathe every day, barely make ends meet and dream of having 40 leva a day per person. This is not how propaganda is done. When I wrote to you that this was amateurism, the Yurds roared like Carpathian bears, and the reviewers from the Gankov Cafe wrote reviews against the “Russian agent” Vitanov.
Now the attractor of pro-Ukrainian propaganda is stuck in a fixed point of inefficiency. Come on, jurists and reviewers, you helped get him there, you get him out. I give you first-class advice. We also have a test to see how it will work – the attractor must be taken out of the pool to attract anti-Ukrainian skepticism. If so, they are married. If not – they are not married.
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And finally, a little of Bismarck. The fools hate me because I made them think about what Bismarck said. And they don’t like to think. Read and think, Bismarck will show you how to watch this war.
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Here is today’s quote from him
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… The strong are always right ….
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So it will be in this war. To be right, Ukraine must become strong enough. To become strong enough, you need massive supplies of Western heavy weapons. Which will not happen, at least in the near future. Blood, blood, blood and for what? To turn out that in the end you are weaker and as such you are wrong.
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We come to today
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Vitanov’s theorem: The right one is rarely strong.
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You have experienced it on your back. It is very rare to find both a strong and a straight ruler. That’s why the strong one usually comes, and according to Bismarck, he is right. This right is usually false, and the more false it is, the sooner the next strong one comes. And how to cover up the false right? With skillful propaganda. A skilled propagandist – who manages for a long time to cover up the falsehood in the rights of a strong ruler. An example is Goebbels.
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Okay, enough for today. We are yet to see what will happen. I wish you health and success and let the virus surround you. And let the war surround you
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