Brief information about the operational situation for Bulgaria regarding the COVID-19 pandemic for November 17, 2021. This information is for people who want to know what I expect to happen with the pandemic in the coming days. The information is as it comes from computers. Good or bad, this is coming out, this is what I am writing to you.
Before I start with today’s news, let me make a point.
Yesterday I said 3 scenarios for the development of the situation from here to Christmas. It happened, what has happened so far. The media immediately grabbed the optimistic scenario and ignored the other two. The sofa roars roar, no matter what Vitanov says. This is such a stable relationship that it is time to elevate it to the rank of a law, writes the mathematician Prof. on Facebook.
Here is what he says there:
Vitanov’s law for the sofa roarer:
It doesn’t matter what news you tell the couch haters, good or bad. They will continue to roar against you because the roar is important to them, not the information they receive.
Let me write here what the scripts are, because I’m watching, other scripts have started circulating in the press and it’s only a matter of time before they are attributed to me in order to go and smash me and plow the universe.
And so the three scenarios of Vitanov
1. Scenario 1: I call it IF WE HAVE A MIND IN YOUR HEAD or an optimistic scenario
Here, the number of new cases falls below 2,000 per day, and the number of deaths falls below 100 per day.
2. Scenario 2: I call it TIBET because of the height of the Tibetan plateau. In this scenario, we are on a plateau of over 2,000 new cases a day (Saturdays and Sundays do not count.)
3. Scenario 3: I call it IF WE HAVE NO MIND IN YOUR HEAD. In this scenario, after the current decline, we are going up again. Possible reasons: relaxation due to the current positive development, return of guest workers for the holidays in December and January (also known as a long pass in the transmission of the infection), departure of pupils and students to school, lack of total lockdown, etc.
These are Vitanov’s scripts. Everyone has a name to distinguish them from what others tell you.
Which of these scenarios will be realized at Christmas? I said it yesterday, I am writing it in big letters now: IT WILL BE SEEN IN THE BEGINNING OF DECEMBER.
Which of these scenarios is sustainable now? For now, the optimistic scenario is stable. Could this scenario become unsustainable and not the December scenario? MAYBE, MAYBE. How? It all depends on what’s in our heads. If we go to TIBET or IF WE DON’T HAVE A MIND IN OUR HEAD, the optimistic scenario can become unsustainable.
I hope it is clear now. 20 months (as if they have become 21 already or will soon become) I explain to the sofa rangers that the basis of Vitanov’s methodology is the system of scenarios and the assessment of their sustainability. 20 months – roar opposite. If it were a flock of sheep, it would understand. But they do not understand. So there is something that is bothering them. What is it – see Vitanov’s law above. The important thing is to roar. And they roar and howl. Well, to roar and howl is their right.
Once we have clarified the scenarios, the news follows.
Today the basic reproductive number is 0.958. Almost as much as yesterday. This means that the extent of the infection is shrinking slowly. The health system is slowly unloading, despite being technically overloaded, as well as overloaded by the human factor. The good news for people on the front line is that this unloading is expected to continue and accelerate next week.
Against this background, to impose a total lockdown is a bit like a rain hood. In order to think about such a thing, we must have been in the TIBET scenario for a long time or we must have entered the scenario IF WE HAVE NO MIND. But for now we are in the optimistic scenario and the laws of political logic say – total lockdown – IOC.
What is the situation with mortality according to official data.
Mortality statistics (data from the site https://coronavirus.bg/)
Died at the end of October – 23,999
Died for November 20201 – 26 676
Died November 2021 – 2677 – (for 16 days)
Died for November 2020 – 2560
Mortality so far for November 2021 compared to November 2020: 104%,
and there is still plenty of time until the end of the month.
Hence the simple conclusion that the talk of successful management of the covid crisis is greatly exaggerated.
Let me remind you today of Vitanov’s law in honor of Erasmus of Rotterdam
Vitanov’s law about a fool being put in a position:
The fool in position remains a fool.
For this law to work, we need 3 things: a fool, a position and most importantly – putting the fool in the position.
Corollary: Whatever position you have, be careful who you put on it. Because if he is a fool, he will use his position to do even greater nonsense.
That was, to cheer you up before the cards. Here they are. Let me tell you right away. These cards are conservative. The expected changes in them are slower than those in life. This is the methodology.
You see, the news is good. According to the plan of the Ministry of Health, there are many areas on the risk map that are not level 4. As many as 12 areas are not level 4. The situation in Eastern Bulgaria is improving. Western Bulgaria will have to wait. We see that things are not homogeneous. From here, it will be difficult to have a total lockdown.
not until the end of the elections – that’s what Vitanov has been saying and writing to you for 2 months. And the election is not over yet.
The forecast map for the 14-day morbidity is not so optimistic, but here we have a cheer. The number of new cases per 100,000 population is expected to continue to decline.
However, the risk map according to our methodology tells us: All is well and the situation is expected to clear up by the end of the month, especially with mortality, but be careful. Everything is purple, so the risks are here.
By the way, there is already an area that is said to come out of the purple zone. Tomorrow you will most likely see who she is. You may know who she is today.
And write again.
So do what you have to do, but beware.
Stay at a sufficient distance from others and do not sit too much in places where there are many people. Minimize the possibility of someone infecting you – stay away from places of mass gatherings. When you get home, wash your hands thoroughly. Hey, elementary things.
Anyone who wants can get vaccinated (but not necessarily).
Finally, let’s end cheerfully. I suggested the three distance alternatives: one pig, one sheep and three carp not by chance. I wanted to see how my roaring couches would react. They didn’t like that with the pig. Not to mention the sheep. They liked the carp thing the most. And if they like it, let’s elevate it to the rank of an official council. So you take three carp in half a meter. You arrange them next to each other and you get the impression of what a distance of a meter and a half is. Keep that distance and live your life.
This is for today. I wish you health and success and let the virus surround you.
– .
