Prof. Nikolay Vitanov made an analysis of the situation with the coronavirus in our country as of August 23.
Here is what he wrote on his personal Facebook profile:
Brief information about the operational situation for Bulgaria regarding the COVID-19 pandemic for August 23, 2021.
If you are a hater, cursing like a cartwright and bursting into tears and hysteria when your tender vulnerable soul responds in the same way, do not read below and live your life.
If you are not a hater, but you are uncomfortable dealing with information about the pandemic, do not read below and live your life.
This is information for those who want to be informed and know what is expected to happen in the coming days.
First, the risk map according to the plan of the Ministry of Health. There is no green on it – everything is at level 2 and 3. Ruse is expected to go to level 3, another area is on the verge of entering a red zone. I will not write the name to rest the universe from roar, but you will see it these days on the maps. This area is not small at all.
This card is for your information. If the ministry followed the plan, there would have to be some measures everywhere in the country. There are measures in one or two places, ie the plan is not followed. But your map is a guide to where the Ministry can think that there should be measures according to its own plan. Will he remember and when – these are already questions with a political connotation, and as you know, I do not comment on such.
The next map is that of risk according to our methodology. I wrote to you that red will creep from east to west. And so it happened – Blagoevgrad entered the red zone and the yellow in western Bulgaria decreased. This will continue. In eastern Bulgaria, Sliven is still holding on, but it won’t be long.
Where there is yellow on this map – it is still relatively calm and with the restraint of the basic measures the summer goes relatively smoothly. Where it’s red – you have to be a little more careful, but life goes on again – and don’t panic please. Where it is purple, care must now be taken. Take a distance there and do not sit too much at gatherings of many people in one place.
The third card is the prognostic map of the 14-day morbidity. The red here almost took over the country.
Which was to be expected.
To cheer you up, I will report to you on an experiment I did. To see if the haters would change their attitude towards me, I stopped writing for about 2 months because it’s good to get vaccinated. The roar did not subside – on the contrary, they even started accusing me of putting a lot of pressure on mass vaccination.
This experiment proves a well-founded position in my mathematical theory of ideological struggle – once an idea enters the head of a person who is already years old, it will be difficult to get it out. The haters know that they have to spit on Vitanov and they spit on him by inertia, that makes them get vaccinated. And he stopped writing about it a long time ago in order to test his theory. Well, thank you dear haters, you have proved that a basic position of my theory is true.
A little more data. Today the basic reproductive number is 1,229. If you look at it more closely – it’s almost 1.3. In other words, the extent of the infection is expected to continue to grow. We’ve flown 20,000 active cases, flying up to 25,000. Hospitalizations and intensive care cases are expected to grow rapidly, but first-line people and hospital managers are not surprised to read these summaries – they have long had an idea of what they will be. the values of those two numbers at the end of the month.
The trend reversal indicators are still below the critical values for all districts and for the whole country. This week, however, this will change – in several areas the indicators are expected to exceed the critical values and we have the beginning of a diffuse spread of the infection there.
At first, the diffuse spread is low, but if no measures are taken, it will increase. That is the logic of things. I will not write the names of the districts so as not to frighten anyone. And let the universe rest a little.
This is for now. I wish you health and success and let the virus surround you, even if you are a hater with a gentle soul, frying Vitanov in order to relieve himself mentally from the burden of the many problems that Vitanov did not create for him. Fry the ones that are causing you problems. And Vitanov do not read it. It’s so simple and logical. What does a Vitanov mean here – nothing.
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