The mathematician Prof. Nikolay Vitanov made an analysis of the situation with the coronavirus in our country as of January 4.
Brief information on the operational situation for the pandemic of 04 February 2022
I couldn’t write yesterday because I had a lot of work to do. The state of affairs is as follows
0. The decisive week is coming, the second of the reign of Omicron. You know we are around the peak time interval. You know what needs to happen in it – breaking the growth trends.
1. To recall the expected order of breaking trends. Breaking the trend of increasing new cases, breaking the trend of increasing the occupancy of hospital beds, breaking the trend of high mortality.
2. Let’s not forget: a set trajectory of the social system – no superfire, no crowded hospitals, no total lockdown. You have known for a long time that the set trajectory of the system is such. You can see with your own eyes whether the huge Bulgarian social system is following this trajectory or not. There is no one to bother you here.
How are things going
3. Breaking the growth trend of the registered new cases per day. We are in the peak period of new cases. I wrote to you that the virus has stumbled well and its blood is flowing due to the imposed measures, which are not excessive, but are sufficient. There is no superfire. The system follows the set trajectory.
The basic reproductive number today is again below 1.3 – the value is 1.11. Omicron reigns, but his dream of lighting a superfire is extinguished.
The prognosis that the majority of the Bulgarian people, who are protected and observe the measures, will carry on their back the inadequate part of the Bulgarian people, is being fulfilled.
There are people who are unhappy that there is no superfire. There are those who are extremely unhappy that among the choir of those who predicted a superfire was one who said that there would be no superfire. Note – this is not a simple forecast. The system was directed on a trajectory on which there is no superfire.
4. The state of affairs in hospitals. The system is on track: there are no overcrowded hospitals. Some pressure on the healthcare system is expected here, until this trend is reversed. This is expected to take a week to 10 days. The health system is expected to survive. Temporary problems may arise in some areas, but there is a resource that can be quickly addressed.
Note again – this is not a simple prediction that there will be no overcrowding in hospitals. The huge Bulgarian social system is being directed and so far successfully adheres to a trajectory in which there is no overcrowding of hospitals. For this purpose, hundreds of indicators are monitored and forecast, district by district.
5. Total lockdown. Set trajectory of the social system: to go through the wave without imposing a total lockdown. The system moves along the set trajectory. There is a fire in important areas of the country – there the values of control indices fall.
Elsewhere, it has not yet erupted, but these are smaller areas. There is no region that has focused on Stage 4 of the plan. No region is expected to get there. The probability of the card you see on the information portal to appear in purple is very small.
There is a lot of muttering here that this was the main goal. No, it is not the main goal – it is an important consequence of the other two goals. As there is no superfire and there are half-empty hospitals, it is natural that there is no total lockdown. For those who can’t realize it yet – there is no superfire in Bulgaria. The system is directed and kept on a trajectory on which there is no superfire. That is why there is no total lockdown.
6. Mortality – and here the system is moving as expected.
I have already written to you – a long time ago the system was chosen to move on a trajectory with high mortality. The gurus cultivated the people and they gave in.
What can be done now is to choose the trajectory of the system so that mortality is as low as possible. This is what happens. Remember – if there is waiting for cancer and if there is not enough vaccination, there will be high mortality. There can be no waiting for cancer all night and then someone else is to blame for our high mortality. This infection is transmitted from person to person.
7. Finally – we manage. The virus is trying to start a superfire, and we stumbled upon it and talked to it
What’s up, doc?
Because there are still misunderstood – where is this What’s up, doc?
You watch the Bunny Rabbit movies and listen to what the rabbit has to say to those who hang out and knit their legs trying to catch him. Won’t you hear the above phrase?
8. Let’s keep the course that way. So far we are doing very well.
The plan is this – to make the three refractions of trends in February. Why? So that on March 19, when it is 2 years since Vitanov, the sinister Moriarty, Agent Smith, or as the fluffy little croaking yurts call him, he can start fighting the virus, stand up and say only good things in honor of the anniversary pandemic news. Do I want a lot? I do not think.
I wish you health and success and let the virus surround you.
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