“We eat and drink until the end of the year, the bill will come after St. Ivan’s Day. The positive trend will still dominate the holidays. “People will go home and the infection will start, but it will take 2-3 weeks for it to develop properly,” Prof. Nikolay Vitanov predicted on the air of “Offensive” on NOVA.
“In 3-4 weeks Omicron will become dominant in Bulgaria when it comes. It is developing faster than the Delta variant of coronavirus “, Vitanov emphasized.
He pointed out that the reproductive number depends on the initial value of the arrival of the new strain in the country.
Vitanov for Omicron and the pandemic by Christmas
“> Vitanov for Omicron and the pandemic by Christmas
“If we start from a low level, the reproductive number will be high. If we start from a higher level, as will happen, the number will not be so great. Let me remind you – the record is 1.97 and it was for the November wave last year. For March-April this year the number was 1.49, and now the highest number was 1.54. We could expect a reproductive number for Omicron around 2, but this is for next year, “said the mathematician.
According to him, the fourth wave of the pandemic in Bulgaria is “broken” and the curve goes down.
Prof. Vitanov: The fifth wave of COVID-19 awaits us
Currently, about 1,000 cases are reported per day. Such was the optimistic version of the mathematical forecasts for the development of the pandemic at the end of the year. However, there are several areas where morbidity remains high.
