The mathematician of the National Operational Headquarters (NSS) commented on the current situation with coronavirus in his Facebook post about the legacy left by the former health experts at the Council of Ministers, who dealt with the management of the crisis.
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–Prof. Nikolay Vitanov lists several key points, here they are:
1. The third wave of the pandemic is under control and is leaving. The basic reproductive number today has a record low value – 0.595. The tendency to shrink the infection is very strong, the number of active cases is expected to fall below 35,000, direction of movement – down to 30,000.
2. It is said that the decline was due to the seasonal effect of the flu. This is not the flu. Evidence that hits you so hard that you break them – guess three times the name of a southern country with high temperatures, where the “flu” kills hundreds of thousands a day and there are thousands dead. Hint – the population is over 1 billion people.
3. What is the difference between the presence of coordination and lack of coordination in style – “well, it’s over.” Compare the situation in this southern country with the situation in the other country with a population of over 1 billion in the north. Thats the difference.
4. The shield grows. The core of the shield today is 20.6%, an increase over yesterday – 0.5%. The range of the shield today is 38.3%, an increase over yesterday – 0.5%. At this rate – reaching 70% – after 63 days. At this pace. There can be no excuse for delaying – vaccines already – shoveling them. While in poor countries people pray for a vaccine, here one can choose.
5. The trend in the dead I have already written several times – decline, decline below 50 per day
6. The downward trend towards falling below 500 cases per day and going to 100 per day is very strong. However, the Indian strain is on our borders. You have to be very careful. Trend reversal indicators have record lows. The Indian strain is not allowed in Bulgaria. For now.
Prof. Vitanov also commented on attacks on the people from the headquarters.
“I have written and said – if I were a factor in this country, these people would not be able to walk under the weight of the orders and medals that I would give them. Because they did it,” he commented.
He revealed that he had not complied with the prime minister’s order to appear once a week at briefings at headquarters.
“When I predicted the next wave and when it would peak, I was declared a national traitor who only scares people and should be arrested, tried (maybe not tried), but must be thrown in jail. “Remember what I said in September last year about November – September was the time when no one thought about what could happen in November,” the mathematician wrote.
“I fulfilled the task with which BAS sent me to support the headquarters and the government. It is very easy to sit on the couch, break chips and spit on Vitanov. Come on now, try to jump over the bar. And so every day, 14 “When you do, come, I will personally pat you on the shoulder for a job well done,” he criticized the critics.
The finale of his post is also critical of those who do not appreciate the work of experts.
“You sit in the trench for 14 months and protect them from a formidable enemy who can take their lives. They make fun of you and shoot you in the back. When you go out of the trench, they roar at you for being a national traitor because you abandoned them. Well, that’s enough. The enemy is repulsed. And you didn’t give me a penny for my efforts, nor did you help with a penny to develop a methodology to help protect you. Get off the couches and jump over the bar. you will see the difference between daily operative work and daily spitting out of malice and envy of people who do their work.The results are described above.I expect to lower the basic reproductive number to 0.1 and then to 0. The accuracy of my predictions at times it reached tens of thousands of percent. This is the bar. Jump, make predictions with an accuracy of one hundred thousandths of a percent. Everyone will tell you that you are a fool, that you do it without money. The place is free , act “.
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