Brief information on the operational situation for the pandemic of March 16, 2022
As always – first the pandemic, then the war.
The pandemic
the moment here is special and we must be careful. The time of the sharp decline in the number of new cases per day is coming to an end, from now on fluctuations in the number of cases are expected against the background of a general trend towards a smaller decline. We are watching what is happening in Greece, because the new version of Omicron may come from there and this will lead to an increase in the number of cases.
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What the Harry Seldon script can do about it is this. Keep it stable, the number of cases falls and falls below 1500 and continues to fall to 1000 and less per day. The diffuse spread of Omicron is extinguished. The new version of Omicron fails to re-ignite it (basic scenario) or ignites it, but fails to ignite it (and this is possible) and so we pass figuratively speaking meter without a sharp increase in the number of new cases per day. Because it’s up to you. Keep Harry Seldon stable so that the number of new cases falls below 1,500 a day. It is.
What we are seeing is that the number of new cases is not rapidly declining towards 1,500 per day. What can I say – whatever we do. We are at the end of the Danube.
Let’s see what the situation is today.
1. The basic reproductive number today is 0.94. It is below 1, so the scope of the infection continues to shrink. This is good.
The health system continues to unload.
2. No superfire. The number of new cases today is high, but the 14-day incidence is still declining. This is good. Less than 1,500 cases a day, the diffuse spread begins to disappear. If we keep less than 1000 cases a day, the probability of dealing with the modified Omicron is very high. Where we are on this path, you can find out for yourself. We are not safe yet.
3. No overcrowded hospitals. There are no overcrowded hospitals. Beds that are being transferred to other needs continue to be vacated. No chaos, no overcrowded hospitals.
4. No total lockdown. There is no total lockdown. There won’t be. “Harry Seldon” creates the preconditions for falling restrictions. But when what falls is decided by the government.
5. Mortality – is slowly declining. As predicted.
6. Ukrainians and the pandemic – arriving Ukrainians do not raise the incidence. As predicted. You know the upper limit – up to 100,000 Ukrainians a month will not significantly affect morbidity, in the sense of reversing the downward trend.
7. Conclusion – the social system is still moving on the predetermined trajectory of the “Harry Seldon” script you announced months ago. Things are under control. Still.
This version of Omicron will not cause a secondary peak. If you keep Harry Seldon stable, he’ll be fine with the modified Omicron. Particular care should be taken in the areas around Greece.
8. The cards. You can see that on the forecast map for the 14-day morbidity, the areas around Greece are doing well. You know that Omicron entered through Greece and from Blagoevgrad set fire to Sofia and western Bulgaria. The modified Omicron will try to do the same. Therefore, it is good to monitor these areas. They are observed. For now, the situation is calm.
We need to keep Harry Seldon stable so that cases fall below 1,500 a day and then below 1,000 a day. This will destabilize the scenario of mass distribution of the modified Omicron in Bulgaria. I think the picture is clear. It depends on us. Remember – “Harry Seldon” will only work if you keep it stable. In a sense – “Harry Seldon” – it’s you.
Now for the war.
Every war is unpleasant. This one is no exception. Here I make a technical analysis of the situation. I do not discuss who is wrong and who is right.
What is the situation today.
1. You know that my opinion is that the war will not be short and
the result of it depends on who will break whom technically and psychologically.
My prediction is coming true. How things are going with technical refraction. Nothing seems to be happening on the fronts. Calm, but you know that below the surface works the law of passing quantitative changes into qualitative ones. Don’t listen to propaganda. The war is being fought on Ukrainian territory. The capacity of both armies is gradually declining, but that of the Ukrainian army is declining much faster. Western arms supplies are insufficient to balance the forces. That is why the Ukrainian army has dug itself into the cities. Logically. What is the Russian army doing to reduce the capacity of the Ukrainian. It destroys the infrastructure and, using its superiority in the air, destroys the equipment of the Ukrainian army.
According to the laws of dialectics, there must be a result of this and there must be a negation of negation – the lull will be replaced by movement along the fronts. Reducing the equipment of the Ukrainian army will lead to an increase in the number of casualties there – with bare hands it is difficult to fight. The civilian population must flee – the only chance for the Ukrainian army is to dig in the cities to stop the Russian army from war. We have already seen this in Syria. The Russian army did not give up. Cities are expected to be demolished as long as the war lasts.
2. Psychological refraction. An intense psychological war is being waged. Both sides are serving, but that’s it
normal considering what Bismarck said
about war and lying.
Here the Ukrainians behave. They are not psychologically broken. The slow advance of the Russian army is presented as a victory for the Ukrainian spirit. This still works. And it can be used for psychological inspiration while Kharkov and Kyiv are in Ukrainian hands. If one of these two cities falls, things will change. If Mariupol falls, the idea of Ukraine’s victory in the war will be severely shaken.
3. The fighting in southern Ukraine. The land corridor of Crimea with Russia through Donbass is available for the Russians. What could threaten him is Mariupol. So this week there will be pressure to take over the city once and for all. There is currently a fight going on there house for house. There are Ukrainian nationalist battalions, which have two options – death or death. They are pressed against the wall and are literally fighting for the last time. They will not give up. So the expectation is that this city will be torn down.
The fighting near Mariupol overshadows what is happening around Nikolaev. For now.
4. The Kramatorsk grouping of the Ukrainian army. I expected more from her. At least not to allow the Russians to shell the Kramatorsk airport so quickly. I expected the direct Russian attack from the south to be stopped, but this is not happening. The Russians are advancing, albeit slowly. Russian troops are moving north from Kharkiv, and Severodonetsk is under siege to the east.
It can still retreat to the west. I wrote to you that Manstein would withdraw these troops and strengthen Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhye with them. But there is no Manstein in the Ukrainian army. If you have noticed, the commander of this group has been replaced. And the new one is not Manstein. Because the boiler there can be closed. And again, there is a denial of denial – as you do not hear about intense fighting there, it will suddenly turn out that the eastern group of the Ukrainian army is boiling in a cauldron.
5. The northern direction Kyiv-Kharkov. These are big cities, and big and well-fortified cities are not falling fast. Kyiv is not yet surrounded by the south, so the great battle there has not yet begun. Kharkiv is collapsing systematically. You know the goal – technical and mental breakdown of Ukrainian troops there. It has not been achieved yet. The Russians are in no hurry. Remote bombing destroyed infrastructure, weakened the Ukrainian army technically and mentally, and crippled its northern group, which could not help parts in the east.
6. Western Ukraine. Here, the Russians’ goal is to cut off Western arms supplies, destroy what has been delivered, and reduce the combat capability of the most vulnerable Western group in the Ukrainian army.
For this purpose, remote bombings are used to freeze the western Ukrainian group, which has suffered the least so far from the fighting.
7. In summary – there are still quantitative accumulations on the fronts. There are no changes in the criteria for qualitative changes. What is a qualitative change? The fall of Mariupol, Nikolaev and Kramatorsk. Then we will be able to say that for the Russians the quantitative changes have passed into qualitative ones. Qualitative changes for Ukrainians? Repelling the Russians from Kyiv, lifting the siege of Kharkov, stopping the Russian army’s offensive in the south. This will judge whether the Ukrainian actions are successful.
That’s it. I’m writing to you again – watch what happens on the fronts.
Propaganda is propaganda. It is like a crooked mirror – it presents events to you as the authors of the propaganda want them to look. For me, it is interesting to see if new techniques are used. Nothing fresh on both sides so far. Boredom. But otherwise it’s not fun at all – people suffer and die. This is not good. Once upon a time during the Caribbean crisis, politicians got along because they still remembered World War II and the horrors of it. Now they have forgotten what war is and remember. I hope they come to their senses. what else to say.
I wish you health and success and let the virus surround you. And let the war surround you.
The publication is taken from the profile of prod. Vitanov on Facebook.
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