According to her, it is clear that the NDSV’s request is an indicator of the declining support for the newly emerging parties in 2021
The most important thing is to see what will be the structure of the representation in the next National Assembly, which at the moment is still too early to predict, but if this categorical and radical opposition to the bloc that they are trying to consolidate before the election “We continue the change” is maintained and “Democratic Bulgaria”, the chances of forming a government are quite small. This is what the political scientist Prof. Rumyana Kolarova said in an interview for BGNES.
According to her, all questions related to voter turnout are currently irrelevant, since we are still two months away from early parliamentary elections.
“So the question of voter turnout will have to be answered even in the last week, because the fact is that there is a significant group of voters who not only decide who to vote for at the last minute, but they also decide whether or not to vote at the last moment,” stated Prof. Kolarova.
According to her, it is clear that the NDSV’s request is an indicator of the declining support for the newly emerging parties in 2021, and accordingly the NDSV count on a part of those voters who obviously do not want to vote either for GERB or for the other pole, for example BSP , as well as for DPS, will focus on them.
“But whether this will happen, I don’t know, because it is very difficult and it is quite incredible that people who voted for new parties, now vote for a party that actually has long since left the political scene,” the political scientist believes. .
Prof. Kolarova commented that the BSP managed to attract back part of its electorate, which was drawn to “Vazrazhdane” and eventually to the PP. “Whether this will happen, it is too early to claim and speculate, but in any case, I think that “Vazrazhdane” hardly have a very bright prospect before the elections,” she pointed out.
And as for “There is such a people”, the political scientist is of the opinion that in politics luck usually lands on the shoulder of such formations. “With the previous referendum, they definitely set in motion a mechanism that gave them a foundation,” added Prof. Kolarova and explained that now the majority of their voters see ITN as an interesting cause, which, however, has no place in parliament.
“Why is there no place in the parliament? Because people vote for parliament with the desire to be governed, with the desire to form a government, it is now clear that ITN has no one to form a government with. So from that point of view they are outsiders and every next election makes them more and more outsiders,” she noted.
The political scientist emphasized that the ITN had some hope that by exposing the PP they would receive a bonus, but this usually does not happen, because when there is a conflict between former coalition partners, both sides lose. She is adamant that the closer we get to the local elections, the less likely it is to form a coalition, for example between GERB and BSP.
“Because it is clear that at the local level GERB and BSP are very strong competition. I even think that it is very unlikely that they will come to an agreement even under a temporary transitional government. The same, of course, with DPS. And as for PP and DB, the situation there is clear – they will act with a view to the local elections, which means that they will not want to form a coalition with GERB”, commented the political scientist.
“For me, the biggest question when we think about the results is related to their intention to form a coalition, because if they form a coalition and are the first political force, it is abundantly clear that they will not want to form a cabinet. And if, as the first political force, they do not form a cabinet, the fate of ITN awaits them,” pointed out Prof. Kolarova, stating that if they do not become the first political force, it will be disastrous for PP.
According to her, from a strategic point of view, it would have been if the PP and the DB had united before the elections in the fall of 2021 or in the fall of 2022. Now, according to her, the PP will not just lose the electorate, they have already lost, and that’s exactly what it is. the reason they are teaming up with DB. A similar unification at the moment, the political scientist also commented, is good for PP, but not for DB.
Prof. Kolarova also expressed an opinion about Rumen Radev’s offices. “The difference with the previous two cabinets is that they were pre-election cabinets, they actively interfered in the elections, their goal was the re-election of the president, and they worked hard in that direction, very actively, very aggressively, with all their might,” she said and added, that now this cabinet is trying to stabilize the administration, which he described as a “Sisyphean labor”.
“If they are looking for some kind of stabilization, they should look for it in civil servants, and civil servants the PP fired them”, recalled the political scientist and specified that in the previous two offices of Radev they also fired civil servants, labeling them “gerbers”.
“In this case, the attempt to stabilize the government after Kiril Petkov leads to the point that they are accused of restoration, but if they don’t do it, the situation will be out of control. Both the ministers, Galab Donev and Radev, realize that the situation is quite critical in many ways, there is a need for sound administration”, noted Prof. Kolarova, emphasizing that this is something that the previous two governments of Radev did not they did, on the contrary, their main goal was to describe GERD.
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